The projected slowdown in Tajikistan's economic growth in the next two years reflects the expected decline in prices for metals and agricultural products, which are the country's main export commodities, said economists at the Asian Development Bank, Asiaplus.tj reports.
They also note "protectionist measures introduced by neighboring countries, which will lead to a decrease in export volumes".
This refers to the sharp increase in the import customs duty rate for Tajik cement by the Uzbek government.
In addition, the slowdown in Tajikistan's economic growth is linked by ADB analysts to the projected slowdown in China and Russia, which are the country's main trading partners. They explain that a slowdown in economic growth in China and Russia could reduce Tajik exports to these countries and the inflow of remittances (from Russia).
Moreover, a slowdown in metal prices (including primary aluminum) and a reduction in remittances (from 45% of GDP in 2024 to 37% in 2025) are expected, which “will restrain growth.”
“Nevertheless, growth will remain significant due to large investments in energy and industry, expanded production in agriculture and services, and significant remittances,” ADB economists expect.
Earlier, the ADB forecasted Tajikistan’s economic growth in 2025 at 7.4%, and in 2026 – 6.8%.
The Tajik authorities plan to achieve economic growth at a level of at least 8%.
In 2024, growth was 8.4%, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than the 2023 figure.
The country's GDP last year amounted to 153.4 billion somoni ($14 billion).
In the structure of last year's GDP of Tajikistan, the share of agriculture was 22.8%, industry - 16.9%, trade - 15.2%, taxes - 9.4%, transport - 9.3%, construction - 8.1%, other sectors and industries - 18.3%.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
April 11, 2025