The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised upward its economic growth projections for Kazakhstan for the next two years, highlighting strong performance in key sectors. The update was published in the July edition of the Asian Development Outlook 2025, Zakon.kz reports.
Kazakhstan's GDP is now expected to grow by 5.1% in 2025 and by 4.3% in 2026. These figures mark an improvement from ADB's previous April forecast of 4.9% and 4.1%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, economic growth reached 5.6%, driven by strong expansion in transport (+21%), construction (+16.9%), manufacturing (+8.7%), and the mining sector (+6.1%).
Rising tax revenues have enabled the government to boost capital investments and increase social spending. Further support has come from OPEC+ decisions to increase oil production. A key contributor to the improved outlook is the launch of Kazakhstan’s major Future Growth Expansion Project in the oil sector.
ADB also revised inflation forecasts upward. In Kazakhstan, inflation is now expected to reach 10.2% in 2025 and 8.4% in 2026, reflecting growing price pressures that are also affecting Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Across the Caucasus and Central Asia region, inflation is projected at 7.8% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026.
According to ADB, Central Asia’s economic performance stands out against a backdrop of slowing growth in the broader Asia-Pacific region. The regional slowdown is linked to potential increases in trade barriers from the United States and rising geopolitical risks. Other challenges include supply chain disruptions, volatility in global energy markets, and a deepening downturn in China’s real estate sector.
Earlier, Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin stated that the country posted its highest first-half GDP growth in 12 years in 2025.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
July 28, 2025