The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (AKRA) of Russia has raised the long-term sovereign rating of the Kyrgyz Republic to BB- for both foreign and national currency, reports Akchabar.
The upgrade is attributed to the agency’s updated methodology, revised assessments of the institutional environment, and a reassessment of several macroeconomic indicators.
Among the key positive factors, AKRA highlights the declining government debt, which has decreased from a peak of 68% of GDP in 2020 to 42% as of August 2025, as well as low interest expenditures due to a high share of concessional borrowing. The agency also notes sustained economic growth, budget surpluses (0.9% of GDP in 2023 and 2.4% in 04), and continued support from international financial institutions. It also points to the relatively low share of the state and quasi-state sectors in the economy.
At the same time, AKRA identifies significant risks. These include the low level of population welfare: nominal GDP per capita stands at just over USD 2,500. The economy remains highly dependent on the external sector: in 2025, 47% of imports came from China and 20% from Russia. The volume of remittances, which previously accounted for about 25% of GDP, declined to 16.3% of AKRA’s projected 2025 GDP between October 2024 and September 2025.
Despite the increase in the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan’s gross international reserves to USD 8.27 billion as of end-November 2025, the agency notes a persistent current account deficit, albeit one showing signs of narrowing. As of November 2025, reserves covered 75% of gross external debt and were sufficient to cover four months of imports.
External government debt was estimated at 24.7% of AKRA’s projected 2025 GDP as of early November, while domestic government debt stood at 17% of GDP.
Experts note that AKRA’s assessment reflects improved macroeconomic stability in Kyrgyzstan, but the country’s continued reliance on external inflows and low income levels limit the potential for further rating upgrades in the near term.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
December 29, 2025