The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its economic growth forecast for developing countries in Asia and the Pacific for the current year, driven by strong domestic demand and continued export growth. At the same time, ADB has lowered its inflation forecast for the region, reports Economist.kg.
According to the September edition of the "Asian Development Outlook 2024," the regional economy is expected to grow by 5.0% this year, up from the previous forecast of 4.9% made in April 2024. The forecast for next year remains at 4.9%. Inflation in developing countries in Asia and the Pacific is projected to decrease to 2.8% in 2024, down from the previous forecast of 3.2%.
The improved economic outlook is attributed to stronger-than-expected growth in East Asia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Pacific region. The global demand for semiconductors, partly fueled by the boom in artificial intelligence, is supporting export growth, while falling global food prices and the slower impact of monetary tightening have brought inflation closer to pre-pandemic levels.
"Strong economic fundamentals will continue to support growth this year and next," said ADB’s Chief Economist Albert Park. "Financial conditions are likely to improve as inflation continues to decline and monetary policy in the U.S. eases, supporting the region's positive outlook."
However, risks to the forecast include potential escalation of trade disputes between the U.S. and China, further deterioration in China’s real estate market, rising geopolitical tensions, and the impact of climate change and adverse weather conditions on commodity prices, food, and energy security.
The growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia has been raised to 4.7% this year from the April forecast of 4.3%, due to increased domestic demand supported by remittances in several economies.
According to ADB data, actual GDP growth figures and forecasts for Central Asian countries for 2024-2025 are as follows:
Kazakhstan:
- 2023: 5.1%
- 2024 (April): 3.8%
- 2024 (September): 3.6%
- 2025 (April): 5.3%
- 2025 (September): 5.1%
Kyrgyzstan:
- 2023: 6.2%
- 2024 (April): 5.0%
- 2024 (September): 6.3%
- 2025 (April): 4.5%
- 2025 (September): 5.8%
Tajikistan:
- 2023: 8.3%
- 2024 (April): 6.5%
- 2024 (September): 6.5%
- 2025 (April): 6.5%
- 2025 (September): 6.5%
Turkmenistan:
- 2023: 6.3%
- 2024 (April): 6.5%
- 2024 (September): 6.5%
- 2025 (April): 6.0%
- 2025 (September): 6.0%
Uzbekistan:
- 2023: 6.0%
- 2024 (April): 5.5%
- 2024 (September): 6.0%
- 2025 (April): 5.6%
- 2025 (September): 6.2%
ADB's inflation data and forecasts for the same period are as follows:
Kazakhstan:
- 2023: 14.5%
- 2024 (April): 8.7%
- 2024 (September): 8.5%
- 2025 (April): 6.3%
- 2025 (September): 6.1%
Kyrgyzstan:
- 2023: 10.8%
- 2024 (April): 7.0%
- 2024 (September): 6.8%
- 2025 (April): 6.5%
- 2025 (September): 6.2%
Tajikistan:
- 2023: 3.8%
- 2024 (April): 5.5%
- 2024 (September): 5.5%
- 2025 (April): 6.5%
- 2025 (September): 6.5%
Turkmenistan:
- 2023: 5.9%
- 2024 (April): 8.0%
- 2024 (September): 5.0%
- 2025 (April): 8.0%
- 2025 (September): 5.0%
Uzbekistan:
- 2023: 10.0%
- 2024 (April): 10.0%
- 2024 (September): 9.5%
- 2025 (April): 9.5%
- 2025 (September): 9.0%
CentralasianLIGHT.org
September 25, 2024