The level of poverty in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia may increase due to the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. Growth will be around 1%, accordig to experts of the International Monetary Fund, TASS reports.
“Our latest regional economic forecast shows that the war in Ukraine could increase poverty in the Caucasus and Central Asia region by 1 percentage point due to its impact on inflation and remittances. This means that about 1 million more people could fall below the poverty line in the coming years," the Foundation said in a statement.
The IMF notes that the rise in inflation in the region was observed even before the start of the conflict, but its impact on world food and energy prices "exacerbated forecasts." Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be hardest hit, according to the IMF. "A sharp decline in remittances could lead to an even more significant increase in the poverty rate - up to 1.4 percentage points in Tajikistan," experts say.
At the same time, experts acknowledged that they expected even more significant negative consequences for the Transcaucasus and Central Asia. "But, surprisingly, economic activity in most countries of the region is still holding up well, thanks in part to unexpected positive spillovers, including income growth and financial inflows to the region," the IMF staff added.
Total population in Central Asia is 78 mln people.
The most ofthe population in Central Asia lives in Uzbekistan - more than 36 mln people.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
Dec. 1, 2022