The new World Bank report on the economy of the Europe and Central Asia region highlights the growth in trade volumes, increased monetary inflows, and the return of citizens that continue to support economic activity in several countries, primarily in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Asiaplus.tj reports.
The WB report notes that "Armenia, Georgia, and Tajikistan remain the leaders in economic growth in this region for the second year in a row."
The Europe and Central Asia region, according to the World Bank's classification, includes 23 countries, including:
- Central European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Romania)
- Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine)
- Russia
- South Caucasus countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia)
- Turkey
- Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia)
- Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)
The report underscores that Tajikistan's economic growth over the period of 2010-2022 averaged 7.1%.
However, World Bank analysts note that this economic growth was driven by household consumption fueled by remittances and investments in state infrastructure.
It is emphasized that Tajikistan still lacks a competitive private sector and creates very few jobs in the face of rapid population growth.
"As a result, there has been significant labor migration, especially to Russia, which has increased economic dependence on remittances," the publication states.
Remittances reached a record level in 2022, accounting for 50% of GDP.
"The high dependence on an undiversified external source of income has increased vulnerability to external shocks," conclude World Bank economists.
The authors of the report predict that Tajikistan's economic growth will reach 6.5% by the end of 2023, which is the second-highest rate among Europe and Central Asia countries after Armenia (6.6%).
Tajikistan's Ministry of Economic Development and Trade expects GDP growth of 7.8% by the end of 2023.
In 2022, Tajikistan's economic growth stood at 8.0%.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
October 10, 2023