The past 2022 has not been an easy year for Central Asia. Against the backdrop of old problems - border conflicts and lack of resources - a new round of geopolitical confrontation between the major powers began. The new year 2023 will not be easy for the region and the world. Bakhtiyor Ergashev, director of the Center for Research Initiatives Ma'no, spoke about this in an interview with Ia-centr.ru.
- Is a war in Central Asia possible in 2023? What could be its causes and consequences?
- If we talk about a war or a serious armed conflict directly between the countries of Central Asia, then I do not think that a large-scale military conflict between the countries of the region is possible. Undoubtedly, there are pain points: the same border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
However, I am convinced that this conflict, despite the fact that there is a tendency to escalate, will be stopped. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are interested in this: two system-forming countries of the region, which have the opportunity to convey their position to the leadership of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In addition, neither China nor Russia are interested in developing a conflict: these countries do not need another conflict that will require serious resources to resolve.
China is now focused on resolving issues with the United States through the prism of Taiwan and generally resolving the situation in the South China Sea: this is the main strategic direction of activity, and they need a calm rear in the west, that is, in Central Asia. Russia is occupied by SPO (special military operation). In this regard, I do not think that a serious armed conflict is possible in Central Asia in 2023.
- Should we expect a serious shortage of resources: gas, electricity, water, or rising prices and a deterioration in the life of the population of Central Asia in 2023?
- Electricity shortage for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan during a certain period in winter is the context that has been present for the last 20 years for all these countries, but so far this has not led to any serious conflicts both within and between the countries of the region, so I do not think that any conflicts are possible in 2023 as a result of a shortage of electricity or gas.
Governments have so far managed to negotiate and stop these challenges. I do not think that a real shortage of electricity or water will lead to serious consequences.
There is certainly a shortage, and we know that Uzbekistan also began to experience a shortage of gas during the heating season in winter. Will this lead to a sharp deterioration in the life of the population? The level is already not very high, but can the deficit become a catalyst for social performances? I don't see the prerequisites yet: governments are still managing to stop problematic moments through extraordinary efforts, and I don't think that speeches are possible.
We see how tense the situation in Kazakhstan is on the issue of providing electricity in the winter and the accidents that occur. But the government of Kazakhstan is making efforts to solve the problems, and I do not think that the lack of electricity, heating failures in the regions of the country can lead to a serious deterioration throughout the country and to serious anti-government protests.
- Should we expect a change of power in any of the countries of Central Asia and the consequences associated with it? Which country is at risk, which country is more stable?
- When countries implement modernization policies, they are in a state of transition. And against the backdrop of very serious problems of a political, economic and social nature, such countries are, of course, very vulnerable. Since they have almost no experience of a legitimate transfer of power, there is not much historical experience of the effective functioning of institutions of power in transition periods. There is a lack of legal and political culture of the population.
All these problems exist, and, undoubtedly, all countries in transition are vulnerable to threats, both internal and external. But if you look objectively, then in none of the five countries of Central Asia today there are real conditions for regime change.
The situation in Tajikistan is quite manageable, and in principle there are no internal forces capable of mobilizing and creating problems for the current government. The gradual transition of power in Turkmenistan, which has been underway for the last year, shows that there are no serious oppositional non-systemic forces in Turkmenistan that could create problems for President Serdar Berdimuhamedov.
It seems to me that after the events of January 2022 in Kazakhstan, they drew conclusions, learned lessons from this experience, and no serious bursts of opposition activity are expected there. Those political and economic reforms that have been launched in Kazakhstan at a new stage give public consensus. I do not think that there are forces in Kazakhstan now that could use unconstitutional methods to overthrow the current regime.
The current government definitely has authority: it has presented its reform program to the country, and there is a consensus in society on the content of the reforms. A significant part of the population supports these reforms and gives carte blanche to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and his team to implement their plans, and I do not think that cataclysms of the January 2022 type are possible.
In Uzbekistan, the situation after 2017, after Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power, the reform program that was proposed to the country received support. In Uzbekistan, there is a consensus on reforms, on who is carrying them out, there is a vote of confidence in the president, support for his course, and I do not think that cataclysms are possible in the country.
Even the events in Karakalpakstan in 2022 showed that the government is quite confident in controlling the situation, it is able to respond to emergencies, and is able to draw conclusions.
Kyrgyzstan is a special country in the region. It has already gone through several revolutions. And no one in the region can ever say that the variant of this or that armed rebellion is not possible in Kyrgyzstan. But with all this, the team of President Sadyr Japarov is now quite confidently controlling the situation. Even the difficult case with the signing of an agreement on the settlement of disputed sections of the border with Uzbekistan, despite the very serious opposition of the oppositional forces, was resolved positively and the decision was made.
This is just confirmation that the executive branch headed by Zhaparov feels confident. In 2023, I see no opportunity for another rebellion, coup or revolution in Kyrgyzstan. It seems to me that the Japarov government has established good relations with both China and Russia, and there will be no special problems with these countries.
If other non-regional countries, including Western countries, want to do something in Kyrgyzstan, I think this time it won’t be so easy: everyone wants peace and stability in the region, and the riots in Kyrgyzstan are tired of everyone, and there will be no next easy coup: the countries of the region and non-regional neighboring countries of the region will help to ensure that there is a stable situation in Kyrgyzstan.
- What good can happen in 2023 in Central Asia?
- If there are no coups, spontaneous uprisings on any grounds - ethnic, religious, etc. - then this is already good. I hope that in 2023 the region will do without it. In principle, the countries of the region are entering the trajectory of partnership.
I do not use the term "integration" because it is a deeper concept. But, as it seems to me, the region is beginning to understand that partnerships and joint projects are needed. I don't think the region is ready for something serious, like a free trade zone for Central Asia. Although this is the lowest stage of the integration association.
It seems that bilateral ties will develop and a serious integration breakthrough should not be expected: neither the countries nor the elites are ready for this yet. However, there will be bilateral projects. In particular, Uzbekistan plans to participate in the construction of a hydroelectric power station on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan and is going to participate in the construction of a hydroelectric power station on the Zeravshan River in Tajikistan. There are other projects as well. As a result, this can give an impetus to entering multilateral large projects of a regional nature.
- How can one word describe the coming year 2023 in Central Asia?
- Given the geopolitical turbulence on a global scale, the growing confrontation between the bloc of Western and non-Western countries, 2023 will be tense and unstable. Central Asia will not be an exception, and I would probably describe it as a tense expectation. At the same time, despite the global turbulence, the region will at least not fall into a serious crisis of a regional nature.
It seems to me that attempts to build partnerships at the regional level will continue, and the countries, of course, will work to ensure that the geopolitical confrontation between global players does not affect the region.
Source: Ia-centr.ru
CentralasianLIGHT.org
January 4, 2023