The dynamics of trade and investment, rising prices for exported gold, and declining costs of imported energy resources will ensure Tajikistan a real GDP growth of 8.4% in 2025, according to analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), reports Asiaplus.tj.
This figure is even higher than the country's government forecast, which is no less than 8.0%.
The inflation rate in the coming year is projected by the EDB to be 5.9%, returning to the National Bank of Tajikistan's (NBT) target range by the end of the year "due to strong demand in the economy."
The NBT’s target level is within 6.0% (+/- 2 percentage points). By the end of 2024, the country recorded its lowest inflation rate since independence—3.6%.
EDB analysts anticipate a slight increase in the refinancing rate (by 1 percentage point) as inflation gradually returns to the target range.
Since August 5, 2024, the refinancing rate in Tajikistan has been at 9.0%.
According to the country’s legislation, the refinancing rate is the minimum interest rate at which the NBT provides loans to commercial banks to ensure short-term liquidity.
EDB experts expect the official exchange rate of Tajikistan’s national currency to be at 11 somoni per $1 by the end of 2025. The slight depreciation of the Tajik currency against the dollar is attributed to "rising imports and a decline in remittance inflows."
As of today, January 8, the official exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar is set at 10.9450 somoni per $1.
According to the NBT, the somoni appreciated by 0.2% against the dollar throughout 2024.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
January 8, 2025