The highest economic growth among the member countries of the Eurasian Development Bank was recorded in Armenia and Tajikistan.
In the first five months of this year, the GDP of Armenia grew by 12.5%, Kazakhstan - by 4.5%, Kyrgyzstan - by 3.4%, and the economy of Tajikistan in the first quarter of 2023 grew by 8.2%, according to the July Macroeconomic Review EDB, reported by Asiaplustj.info.
It notes that the economies of Russia and Belarus have already returned to the positive zone in the first five months of this year with GDP growth of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.
The authors of the publication explain the high growth rates of the Tajik economy by “strong domestic demand” (high domestic trade turnover).
They note that for 5 months of 2023, the retail trade turnover increased by 14.8%, and the volume of investments - by 29.1%.
The Bank's Review states that all the main production sectors make a positive contribution to the overall economic dynamics: agriculture increased output by 12.6%, industry - by 22.8%, the transport industry increased the turnover of goods by 7.8%, and passengers - by 50%.
“We predict that the country's GDP will increase by 7.9% in 2023. Slowdown compared to the first quarter, following which the economy grew by 8.2% y/y, can be expected due to a decrease in the volume of remittances incoming to Tajikistan in the context of the weakening of the Russian ruble,” EDB analysts conclude.
According to official data, the real growth of the Tajik economy in 2022 amounted to 8%. At the same level, the country's government expects growth in the current year.
The volume of last year's GDP in Tajikistan amounted to about 116 billion somoni ($10.6 billion).
The share of agriculture in the structure of GDP was 24.6%, industry - 17%, trade - 14.3%, transport - 9.3%, taxes - 9.2, construction - 7.9%, other service industries - 17, 7%.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
July 13, 2023