The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Uzbekistan’s long-term foreign currency credit rating by one notch - from BB- to BB. The rating outlook is Stable, meaning that no major changes are expected in the near future, Gazeta.uz reports.
What is a credit rating and why does it matter?
A credit rating reflects how reliably a country (or company) can repay its debts on time. Think of it as a trust score:
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The higher the rating, the lower the risk of default.
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It becomes cheaper for the country to borrow money from abroad.
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It’s easier to attract foreign investment.
Previously, Uzbekistan’s BB- rating was considered “speculative” or “non-investment grade”, meaning there was some risk for investors. The upgrade to BB shows that Uzbekistan is now seen as more financially stable and creditworthy.
Why did Fitch raise Uzbekistan’s rating?
According to Fitch, the upgrade reflects:
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Accelerated reforms in the country.
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Positive medium-term growth prospects.
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Ongoing improvements in fiscal discipline and economic governance.
Key recent developments include:
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Strengthening of the monetary policy framework.
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Progress with privatization plans and increased transparency in government institutions.
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Reforms in energy pricing and subsidy systems, which led to better-than-expected fiscal performance in 2024.
These measures have helped improve Uzbekistan’s governance indicators, although they still lag behind countries with similar credit ratings.
Challenges remain
Despite the progress, Uzbekistan still faces several issues:
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Low GDP per capita.
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Heavy reliance on commodity exports.
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Persistent inflation and a high level of dollarization in the financial system.
What’s the economic outlook?
Fitch forecasts strong economic growth of 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026, matching the pace of 2024. That’s significantly higher than the 3.8% average among peer countries with similar credit ratings.
Growth will be supported by:
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Continued structural reforms,
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Strong demand for key commodities (especially gold), and
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Rising remittance inflows from abroad.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
June 27, 2025