International investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 oil supply forecast for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq, Reuters reports. Analysts attributed this decision to lower-than-expected actual production figures in these countries.
At the same time, analysts have upgraded their price expectations. Goldman Sachs now forecasts an average Brent price in 2026 of $64 per barrel (previously $56), and WTI at $60 (previously $52). The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 has been raised by $6, to $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI. This increase is due to lower-than-expected oil inventories in OECD countries. The bank continues to assume no supply disruptions from Iran.
By the end of 2025, crude oil production in Kazakhstan increased by 5.5%, to 86.7 million tonnes. Oil and petroleum product production increased by 13.3% year-on-year (to 99.4 million tons).
As of May 2025, Tengizchevroil contributed over $1.7 billion in direct payments to the Kazakh budget in the first quarter of 2025. Overall, these payments have exceeded $203 billion since TCO's inception in 1993.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
February 24, 2026