Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) expect Tajikistan's economy to grow by 7.3% in 2024, with a growth rate of 8.2% projected for 2023. This information is part of the "Macroeconomic Forecast of the EDB for 2024–2026," presented in Almaty, Asiaplustj.info reports.
The economic growth forecast for the upcoming year in other Eurasian countries is as follows: Armenia at 5.7%, Kazakhstan at 5.0%, Kyrgyzstan at 4.5%, Belarus at 2.0%, and Russia at 1.5%.
The EDB specialists believe that Tajikistan's GDP growth will continue to be supported by expanding capacities in industries, especially in metallurgy, energy, textile, and food sectors, along with accompanying investment activities within the framework of the government's economic development programs.
They note that a slight slowdown compared to 2023 (EDB's forecast for 2023 is 8.2%) will be due to the worsening external economic conditions, with a slowdown in growth rates both in Russia and in leading global economies.
"In 2025–2026, GDP growth will be 6-7%. These rates are close to potential for Tajikistan, higher than the regional average, thanks to structural factors supporting the country's rapid economic growth: a catching-up nature of its development and high population growth rates," emphasizes the publication.
Risks
The Macroeconomic Forecast notes that the economic situation in Tajikistan over the next two years may take a less favorable turn than the EDB's baseline forecast if a "deep downturn" occurs in the regional and global economy.
"In these conditions, there will be a decrease in money transfers to the country, and Tajikistan's income from exports will decline," explain the EDB analysts.
Under the pessimistic scenario, the Bank's experts suggest that the country's economic growth in 2024 could slow to 5.7%.
"The negative effects of weaker external demand and a more significant reduction in remittances will be partially offset by a softer monetary policy of the National Bank of Tajikistan. Cheaper energy and food may also compensate for negative shocks," concludes the publication.
Inflation
The forecast indicates that consumer price growth in Tajikistan will accelerate to 6.6% in the coming year.
"Strong consumer activity in the country and the surge in inflation in Russia have influenced monthly inflation rates in Tajikistan. We expect that until the end of the current year and at least in the first half of 2024, they will remain higher than last year. Under these conditions, annual inflation may approach the upper limit of the NBT's target range of 6+/-2%," believe EDB analysts.
They anticipate that in 2025–2026, inflation will settle at levels close to 6.0%, placing it in the middle of the NBT's target range.
"This will be the result of the National Bank's consistent policy to control the growth of consumer prices in the country. Stabilization of global commodity prices will create a favorable background for the National Bank to achieve this task," according to the Bank's specialists.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
December 15, 2023