The International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook report, forecasts global economic growth at 3.2% through the end of 2025, noting the strengthening role of emerging Asian markets and countries of the Global South. Against this backdrop, the economies of Central Asia are showing notable improvement, and Tajikistan’s outlook is assessed as particularly positive, Asiaplus.tj reports.
According to IMF projections, Kazakhstan maintains its leading position in the region: in 2025, its economy is expected to grow by 5.9%, significantly above the global average. Central Asian countries overall demonstrate rising economic activity: Uzbekistan may grow by 6.8%, and Kyrgyzstan by 8.0%, strengthening the region as an emerging economic cluster.
Tajikistan stands out with even higher growth rates: the IMF expects 7.5%, calling it “impressive.” Despite the country’s low nominal GDP per capita (around $1,600), current dynamics indicate a shift toward a more sustainable development model.
IMF experts attribute Tajikistan’s strong performance to a combination of factors:
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an increase in labor exports and remittances,
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infrastructure modernization,
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improvements in the business climate.
To maintain positive momentum, the IMF recommends continuing economic diversification, strengthening social infrastructure, and reducing dependence on external income sources.
When evaluating GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP), Tajikistan’s position looks modest: $6,100 international dollars per capita, compared to $44,800 in Kazakhstan. This underscores the need to boost domestic demand and improve living standards.
The PPP dollar is used to accurately compare economies by accounting for differences in the cost of goods and services. In countries with lower prices, PPP measures reflect real economic capacity more accurately than nominal indicators.
Tajikistan’s main challenges include low household incomes, reliance on migrant remittances, and a limited economic structure. For a transition to long-term sustainable growth, the IMF recommends:
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expanding investment in education and healthcare,
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improving the business environment,
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attracting foreign investment,
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developing the domestic market and infrastructure.
Despite these challenges, international institutions emphasize Tajikistan’s significant potential for further growth and strengthening macroeconomic stability.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
14 November 2025