ASTANA — The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has released its latest macroeconomic review, highlighting robust economic performance in Kazakhstan and projecting a gradual decline in inflation toward the end of 2026, Forbes.kz reports.
Kazakhstan's GDP expanded by 6.5% in 2025, marking the strongest annual growth rate in over a decade. According to EDB analysts, this performance was driven primarily by domestic factors:
|
Sector |
Growth Rate (2025) |
|---|---|
|
Mining |
+9.4% |
|
Manufacturing |
+6.4% |
|
Domestic trade |
+8.9% |
|
Transport |
+20.4% |
|
Construction |
+15.9% |
Expansion at the Tengiz oil field and broader industrial capacity upgrades provided additional momentum.
Inflation in Kazakhstan slowed to 11.7% year-on-year in February 2026, down from 12.2% in January. The deceleration reflects easing pressure from global food markets: food price growth has moderated for the third consecutive month, reaching 12.7% y/y.
"We believe monetary policy measures will help stabilize inflation expectations. Our estimates suggest inflation could sustainably decline to 9.7% by end-2026," EDB analysts noted.
In early March, the National Bank of Kazakhstan held its base rate steady at 18%. The EDB expects this stance to persist in the near term:
"Elevated inflation expectations (13.7% y/y in February 2026) still warrant maintaining the current base rate. We believe the regulator could begin easing policy in the second half of the year, provided inflation continues to decelerate sustainably," the review states.
Key indicators at a glance:
|
Indicator |
Value / Forecast |
|---|---|
|
GDP growth (2025) |
+6.5% |
|
Inflation (Feb 2026) |
11.7% y/y |
|
Food inflation (Feb 2026) |
12.7% y/y |
|
Base rate (current) |
18% |
|
Inflation forecast (end-2026) |
~9.7% |
|
Inflation expectations (Feb 2026) |
13.7% y/y |
The EDB emphasizes that the pace of future rate cuts will depend on:
- Sustained moderation in inflation and inflation expectations;
- Stability in global commodity and food markets;
- Progress in structural reforms supporting non-resource sector growth.
For Kazakhstan, maintaining the balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic expansion remains a key policy challenge in 2026.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 17, 2026