The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has released its Macroeconomic Forecast for six member states, predicting a gradual return to stable GDP growth rates in the region. According to analysts, Kazakhstan’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, reports Zakon.kz.
Other forecasts for 2025 include GDP growth of 5.5% in Armenia, 2.6% in Belarus, 8.7% in Kyrgyzstan, 2.4% in Russia, and 8.4% in Tajikistan.
The report highlights global structural challenges that may limit GDP growth, such as a slowdown in productivity gains amidst rising wages, decreased labor force efficiency and competitiveness, economic fragmentation, and a diminished role of international trade as a growth driver.
Under these circumstances, the forecast projects a GDP slowdown in the U.S. from 2.8% to 1.6%, 1.1% growth in the Eurozone, and an acceleration in China’s economy to 5% in 2025.
The restrained growth of the global economy is expected to lead to mixed commodity price trends:
- Oil prices are projected to decline due to increased supply amid weak demand.
- Metal prices are expected to rise, supported by the development of low-carbon energy and lower interest rates in developed countries.
- Food prices, after significant decreases in 2023–2024, are anticipated to rise again.
The EDB anticipates Kazakhstan’s GDP growth acceleration to 5.5% in 2025, driven by factors such as stimulative fiscal policies, reduced interest rates, increased oil production, and government programs focused on regional development and infrastructure construction.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
December 6, 2024