The inflation in Kazakhstan is estimated to be between 10-12% by the end of the current year and is projected to slow down to 5.5-7.5% by the end of 2025, stated Galymzhan Pirmatov, the Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Kazinform reports.
"Inflation by the end of the current year is estimated at 10-12% and is projected to slow down to 5.5-7.5% by the end of 2025, with subsequent maintenance near the target of 5%. This will be facilitated by further easing of inflationary pressures from the external environment and restraining monetary conditions," said Galymzhan Pirmatov, presenting the updated assessments of the National Bank during a regular forecast round at a meeting of the Government of Kazakhstan.
According to him, these estimates are in line with the forecasts of the Government of Kazakhstan.
"In the baseline scenario, the current account of the balance of payments will transition from a surplus in 2022 to a deficit. The deficit in 2023 will be (-)3.4% of GDP. In subsequent years, an improvement in the current account of the balance of payments is expected, with it remaining in the deficit zone. The current account of the balance of payments will continue to be vulnerable to changes in global commodity prices," explained Galymzhan Pirmatov.
The head of the National Bank also noted that the export of goods according to the balance of payments methodology in the medium-term perspective will be determined by the increase in oil production volumes. Restraining factors for export growth will include the redirection of gas for domestic consumption, as well as the scenario assumption of lower prices for metals, coal, grain, and refined oil products.
The import of goods is expected to continue to grow on the forecast horizon due to increased demand from the population and businesses.
"The National Bank will continue to implement monetary policy aimed at further reducing inflation and ensuring macroeconomic stability. On the fiscal policy side, it is important to strictly adhere to the countercyclical budget rule, which will enhance the coordination of macroeconomic policy," summarized Galymzhan Pirmatov.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
August 29, 2023