Kazakhstan's trade balance grows despite unstable oil prices

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The dynamics of Kazakhstan's foreign trade in 2024 are quite unusual compared to previous years. On the one hand, there is a decrease in foreign trade turnover, while on the other, the trade balance is showing impressive growth, reports Zakon.kz.

Foreign trade turnover this year has not once exceeded last year’s level. For the period from January to July, the figure was 1.8% lower than the same period last year, amounting, according to preliminary data, to $78.97 billion, notes Kazakh economist Tulegen Askarov.

In absolute terms, the volume of foreign trade decreased by $1.45 billion, according to statistical data. This can partly be explained by the drop in the price of Brent crude oil from June's maximum average monthly level of $85.2 per barrel to $80.7 in July. Considering that in August this price fell to $76.9 and then to $73.5 in September, it can be assumed that foreign trade dynamics are unlikely to improve by the end of this year.

Kazakhstan's exports in the first seven months of this year increased by only 2.2%, reaching $46.13 billion. However, this positive statistic was driven only by the 6.6% increase in exports to "far-abroad" countries, reaching $37.8 billion, while exports to CIS countries decreased by 14.1%, to $8.3 billion, and to the EAEU by 15.9%, to $5.73 billion. The main reason for these negative trends is the significant decline in domestic exports to Russia, which fell by 18%, to $5 billion.

Imports from Russia also decreased, but to a lesser extent - by 2.9%, to $9.38 billion. As a result, imports from EAEU countries decreased by 4% to $10.6 billion, and from CIS countries by 4.6% to $11.2 billion. Imports from "far-abroad" countries also declined, and more significantly - by 8%, to $21.64 billion. Overall, the total volume of foreign goods supplied to Kazakhstan this year decreased by 6.9% to $32.35 billion.

"Although the overall foreign trade dynamics look pessimistic, its balance - the difference between exports and imports or the trade surplus - is improving significantly, with impressive growth of 34.6%, reaching $13.3 billion."

CentralasianLIGHT.org

September 30, 2024