The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan has upgraded its economic outlook for 2026: real GDP growth is now expected at around 10%, up from the previously projected 9%, according to the regulator's monetary policy report, Economist.kg reports.
The adjustment reflects sustained activity in the real sector over the past three years. For the first 11 months of 2025, the economy expanded by 10.2%.
Key growth drivers for 2026 include:
- Industry — commissioning of new capacities and production expansion;
- Trade — growth of e-commerce stimulating wholesale and retail segments;
- Construction — increased domestic capital investment;
- Services — maintaining a ~50% share of total GDP.
The main stimulus remains strong domestic demand, supported by rising real household incomes and a budget surplus.
The National Bank has set an inflation target of ~10% for 2026, assuming no new external shocks. Over the medium term, the regulator aims to bring inflation back to the 5–7% corridor.
To contain price pressures, tight monetary conditions will be maintained. Key tools include the policy rate and the new Bishkek Interbank Rate (BIR), introduced in September 2025.
The regulator reaffirmed its commitment to a floating exchange rate: foreign currency values will be determined by the market. Currency interventions will be used solely to smooth sharp fluctuations.
As of December 19, 2025, inflation stood at 9.2%, driven primarily by external factors and logistics costs.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 11, 2026