Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Timur Suleimenov stated on March 6 that escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to higher oil prices, will have a positive impact on the country's economy—strengthening the tenge, increasing export revenues, and boosting inflows to the National Fund and state budget, Zakon.kz reports.
"More than 50% of export revenues and over 30% of budget and National Fund income are derived from oil. Therefore, rising oil prices fundamentally increase economic activity, the contribution of the oil and gas sector to GDP, and the volume of fiscal revenues," Suleimenov emphasized during a briefing.
At the same time, the head of the National Bank noted that the duration of the high-price period and the length of the military conflict are of key importance. Under current market conditions, there are no additional prerequisites for tenge weakening: higher export revenues increase the supply of foreign currency in the market, which supports the stability of the national currency.
"In the absence of external shocks, we expect the tenge exchange rate to remain within current ranges in the near term," he added.
Responding to a question about the impact of the conflict on the National Fund, Suleimenov stated: "A military conflict is always a negative event, but its economic consequences—in the form of higher oil prices—are positive for the National Fund and the republican budget in this case."
Earlier, the National Bank reported that, under the baseline scenario, Brent crude prices in the first half of 2026 may temporarily exceed previous forecasts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 6, 2026