The national currency of the somoni may weaken, and the inflation rate in Tajikistan may rise until the end of 2023 due to an increase in consumer prices in Russia, according to a review by analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), TASS reports.
“We expect that by the end of 2023 inflation will increase due to the acceleration of consumer price growth in Russia, the main supplier of imports to the country, the resumption of the gradual weakening of the national currency, and also due to the fact that in the second half of 2022 Tajikistan experienced a relatively slow rising prices,” the review says.
The stability of the somoni exchange rate against the dollar had a restraining effect on inflation in Tajikistan in July. According to the bank, in July inflation in Tajikistan amounted to 2.3% in annual terms. Earlier, the EDB recorded that the May inflation rate of 2.4% was the lowest since mid-2018. The National Bank of Tajikistan predicts inflation at 6% in 2023.
The exchange rate of Tajikistan has practically not changed since February 2023 and remains at the level of about 10.9 somoni per $1, in January the rate was about 10.2 somoni per $1. The strongest depreciation in recent years occurred in March 2022, when it dropped to 13 somoni per $1.
Meanwhile, the EDB reported that in the first half of 2023, the growth of the Tajik economy amounted to 8.3%.
CentrallasianLIGHT.org
August 21, 2023