Tajikistan will reach high-income country status only in about 100 years if current growth rates persist, the World Bank’s Spring Economic Update for Europe and Central Asia Projets forecast says. A similar outlook is projected for Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan would need approximately 70 years to achieve this milestone, while Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan could cross the threshold in less than 30 years, Asiaplus.tj reports.
The forecast is based on average per capita income growth over the past decade, factoring in the impact of the pandemic and economic difficulties experienced in the mid-2010s. In 2024, regional growth reached only 2.9%, down from an average of 3.9% between 2000 and 2020.
By 2026, economic growth in Central Asia is projected to average 4.4% annually. However, this expansion is expected to slow due to weakening trade with Russia, declining remittance inflows, and limited investment outside the commodity sector. Remittances remain a critical pillar of household consumption: they account for around 40% of GDP in Tajikistan and over 20% in Kyrgyzstan.
The World Bank emphasizes that accelerating the transition to high-income status will require boosting productivity through technological modernization, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Regional countries are encouraged to shift from a traditional "2i" strategy - focused on investments and imports - to a "3i" model by adding innovation as a third key driver of growth.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
August 18, 2025