The highest GDP growth in the Central Asian region in 2025 is expected in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, according to the Eurasian Development Bank's (EDB) Macroeconomic Forecast published on November 5, reports Avesta.tj.
The projections estimate Tajikistan's economy will grow by 8.4% and Kyrgyzstan's by 8.7%. The lowest growth rates are forecasted for Russia (2.4%) and Belarus (2.6%).
In Tajikistan, economic growth is attributed to rising prices for gold and other metals that dominate its exports, as well as decreased costs for imported energy and food. These factors are expected to free up resources for investment and consumption. Additionally, population growth and the catching-up nature of the economy contribute to accelerated development.
Other regional countries, such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, are also predicted to achieve high growth rates of 5.5% each. Kazakhstan's growth will be driven by increased oil production, stimulative fiscal policies, and infrastructure investments, while strong domestic demand and exports will power growth in Armenia.
The EDB also forecasts a decline in inflation across most countries in the region. By the end of 2025, inflation in Tajikistan is expected to slow to 5.8%, and in Kyrgyzstan to 5.0%. In contrast, inflation rates in Russia and Kazakhstan will be 6.5% and 7.3%, respectively, while Belarus will see 6.6%. Armenia's inflation rate is projected to reach 3.1%, aligning with the lower bound of its target range.
The forecast emphasizes that countries with high GDP growth will demonstrate strong performance in industry and investment, while economic growth in Russia and Belarus will remain modest.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
December 6, 2024