In 2020, Tajikistan’s public debt reached 50% of its GDP, but has since started to decline. Nevertheless, the country remains at high risk of a debt crisis, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report "A World of Debt", as cited by Asiaplus.tj.
Globally, public debt reached a record high of $102 trillion in 2024. Nearly one-third of this—$31 trillion—is owed by developing countries. These nations paid $921 billion in interest payments alone, surpassing their combined spending on health and education for billions of people.
“Debt can be a useful tool, but when it becomes excessive, it destroys the future,” UNCTAD experts warn.
Central Asia: Borrowing Outpaces Growth
In the Europe and Central Asia region, public debt increased 2.5 times between 2010 and 2022, while economic output grew only 1.4 times. This indicates that borrowing has significantly outpaced economic growth.
While Tajikistan’s debt ratio has declined since 2020, the country still remains in the high-risk category for default.
All Central Asian countries except Kazakhstan have credit ratings below investment grade, meaning they are forced to borrow at high interest rates. This is particularly critical for Tajikistan, which faces major Eurobond repayments in 2027. Without access to concessional loans, the risk of a debt crisis remains high.
In Uzbekistan, public debt is rising rapidly, though from a low starting point. Much of the borrowing is aimed at economic modernization, which could lead to long-term fiscal risks.
This debt burden is especially painful for Central Asian countries that rely heavily on international assistance but, in practice, end up transferring large sums to wealthier countries and financial institutions.
UNCTAD proposes several measures to help countries manage rising debt. Experts call for a global reform of the public finance system, reduction of the debt burden for countries nearing default, improved access to concessional financing, and a fair debt restructuring mechanism.
Another critical recommendation is to enhance transparency regarding public debt data.
Tajikistan’s External Debt Fell by $87 Million
According to the Ministry of Finance of Tajikistan, as of April 1, 2025, the country’s external debt amounted to $3.101 billion—a decrease of $87 million (2.7%) since the beginning of the year.
Nearly all of this debt (95.6%) consists of public liabilities, with the rest in government-guaranteed loans.
China remains Tajikistan’s largest creditor, holding about $1 billion in loans.
Tajikistan also owes substantial amounts to international financial institutions, including the World Bank, ADB, IDB, and EBRD.
In 2025, approximately $385 million is allocated for servicing external debt, including $135 million in repayments by state-owned enterprises.
Debt levels are expected to rise again as new loans are ratified, including financing to complete the Rogun Hydropower Plant.
As of January 1, 2024, the public debt and its share of GDP in Central Asian countries were as follows:
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Kazakhstan – $59.8 billion (23% of GDP at $259.3 billion)
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Uzbekistan – $34.9 billion (34.4% of GDP at $101.6 billion)
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Kyrgyzstan – $6.2 billion (45.2% of GDP at $13.7 billion)
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Tajikistan – $3.6 billion (30.2% of GDP at $12.1 billion)
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Turkmenistan – approx. $3.8 billion (5% of GDP at $75.4 billion)
CentralasianLIGHT.org
June 30, 2025