Tajikistan’s economic growth is expected to slow to 7.5% in 2025 due to a decline in domestic demand growth amid a reduction in remittance inflows as a share of GDP, according to the regional economic review by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), reports Asiaplus.tj.
The review notes that from 2025 to 2027, remittances from labor migrants will gradually return to their long-term levels following high volumes seen during 2022–2024. Nevertheless, the country’s balance of payments is projected to remain stable due to reduced capital outflows, including in the form of cash foreign currency purchases.
The decline in migrant remittances is attributed by the report’s authors to a "deterioration in external conditions."
A World Bank migration report published in early March stated that in 2024, remittances from Tajik labor migrants accounted for 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP—the highest proportion in the world. For comparison, the figure stood at 24% of GDP in Kyrgyzstan and 14% in Uzbekistan.
Analysts from the Asian Development Bank, in their recent Regional Economic Outlook, forecast that remittances will fall to 37% of GDP this year.
Meanwhile, EFSD experts expect inflation in Tajikistan to be “closer to the upper limit of the target range.” The National Bank of Tajikistan has set the inflation target for 2025 at 5% (±2 percentage points).
“In the medium term, average annual inflation will decrease to the midpoint of the target range,” the EFSD review emphasizes.
According to the report’s authors, inflationary risks in Tajikistan are primarily driven by the potential for food prices to rise more than anticipated in the baseline scenario.
The Tajik government aims to achieve economic growth of no less than 8%.
In 2024, the growth rate was 8.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than in 2023.
The country’s GDP in 2024 amounted to 153.4 billion somoni (approximately $14 billion).
In terms of structure, last year’s GDP included: agriculture – 22.8%, industry – 16.9%, trade – 15.2%, taxes – 9.4%, transport – 9.3%, construction – 8.1%, and other sectors – 18.3%.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
April 17, 2025