The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for Tajikistan by 0.7 percentage points - from 6.5% to 7.2% - for the current year.
This is the highest growth estimate among all countries in the region, according to the new World Bank report on the economy of Europe and Central Asia, reports Asiaplus.tj.
High economic growth by the end of this year is also expected in Uzbekistan (6.0%), Kyrgyzstan (5.8%), and Armenia (5.5%).
Additionally, the World Bank economists have improved their forecast for Tajikistan’s economy over the next two years: from 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025 and from 4.5% to 5.0% in 2026. Only Uzbekistan is projected to have higher growth during 2025-2026 (5.8% and 5.9%, respectively).
The World Bank classifies 22 countries as part of the Europe and Central Asia region, including:
- Central Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Romania)
- Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine)
- Russia
- South Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia)
- Turkey
- Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia)
- Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)
The report emphasizes that “after a series of crises in developing countries in this region, economic growth has stabilized, albeit at a much lower level than in the early 2000s.”
The region's economic growth is forecasted to slow to 3.3% in 2024, compared to 3.5% in 2023, and further decelerate to 2.6% in 2025.
“This is significantly below the average annual growth rate of 2000-2009,” the report states.
The high economic growth in Tajikistan (8.3% in 2023 and 8.2% in the first half of 2024) has previously been attributed by World Bank analysts to increased gold export revenues, rising private consumption, and increased government infrastructure spending.
“Domestic demand was supported by an increase in remittances from labor migrants and higher public sector wages in 2023, contributing to a further reduction in poverty,” the report on Tajikistan’s economy noted.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
October 22, 2024