The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has published a forecast predicting that Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 8% in 2024 and by 7% in 2025, reports Avesta.tj.
The main drivers of this growth will be increased investment in infrastructure and rising domestic demand. The EBRD report notes that wage increases in the public sector, as well as pension and minimum wage hikes in the first half of 2023, contributed to the growth of domestic consumption.
This, in turn, had a positive effect on the development of retail and wholesale trade sectors. Other key factors for economic growth include the resumption of exports of precious and semi-precious metals, increased government spending on infrastructure, and active investments in fixed capital.
However, EBRD experts warn of potential risks to Tajikistan's economy, particularly related to fluctuations in remittance volumes from Russia.
According to the macroeconomic review by the Eurasian Development Bank, the volume of remittances to Tajikistan in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 56% compared to the same period last year.
This is due to the growth of international labor mobility and high economic activity in neighboring countries.
Additionally, the EBRD forecasts that the Central Asian economy will also show stable growth, with rates of 5.1% in 2024 and 5.9% in 2025, driven by increased revenues from commodity exports and infrastructure investments.
CentralasianLIGHT.org,
September 27, 2024