There are significant obstacles and issues that make Turkmenistan's accession to the Organization of Turkic States in 2024 unlikely, according to Eldaniz Guseynov, a specialist in European and international studies. This material was published by the Eurasia Today portal.
According to Guseynov, in response, one could mention a quote from the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, at a recent diplomatic forum in Anatolia:
"This year, under the motto 'Treasure trove of the wisdom of Magtymguly Fragi,' we celebrate the 300th anniversary of the birth of the great Turkmen poet and thinker. Grand celebrations will be held in honor of the jubilee date. A summit dedicated to Magtymguly Fragi will be held, with the participation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing a desire to attend. It is possible that Turkmenistan will become a member of the Organization of Turkic States at this summit."
However, according to him, there are several problems that he outlined:
1. Official Turkmenistan has already made statements about full membership in the OTS before this. There were also many insights that this would happen specifically in 2023. As we can see, this has not yet happened.
2. This year, two OTS summits are planned: the first in the summer in Azerbaijan and the second in the autumn in Kyrgyzstan. At the first summit, Turkmenistan will not be able to become a full member of the organization, as it will be an informal summit.
Theoretically, this could happen in Kyrgyzstan. But Berdimuhamedov in the above quote said that this could happen at the summit dedicated to Magtymguly Fragi.
This could be the second full OTS summit in 2024, which I doubt. Simply holding a meeting of OTS leaders in Turkmenistan seems to me to contradict the organization's rules. For this reason, I also do not consider this option.
3. Turkmenistan often uses rhetoric about possible membership in the OTS to gain certain advantages in negotiating with Turkiye.
For example, in 2023, Turkmenistan actively talked about possible membership in the organization due to the tightening of migration rules in Turkey, which forced thousands of its citizens to return home.
This year, Turkmenistan is likely to use this rhetoric in negotiations with Turkiye and Azerbaijan to expand gas supplies to Europe.
4. In the event of Turkmenistan's accession to the OTS, the Turkmen authorities will also need to recognize the status of Northern Cyprus as an observer in the organization, which may contradict Turkmenistan's status of permanent neutrality. And this, in turn, will affect Turkmenistan's relations with the European Union. At the same time, Turkmenistan is interested in increasing gas supplies to Europe.
Although Northern Cyprus is also an observer in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, where Turkmenistan is a full member, the new recognition of Northern Cyprus as an observer in the new organization may also affect Turkmenistan's relations with Europe.
5. The question arises of the advisability of Turkmenistan's membership in the OTS. Turkmenistan is generally oriented towards developing cooperation with Central Asian countries, as well as towards developing transport routes.
These are key areas of cooperation between Turkmenistan and Turkic states. Some agreements for the development of transport links, which are important for Turkmenistan, have already been adopted within the OTS.
However, Turkmenistan has also signed an Agreement on Strengthening Interconnectivity of Ground Transport in Central Asia and actively develops the "Turkiye-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan" meeting format, so Turkmenistan can likely achieve its foreign policy goals even without permanent membership in the OTS.
In conclusion, the expert notes that despite preliminary statements and interest in membership, foreign policy, legal, and strategic considerations may delay this process.
On November 11, 2023, the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, as an honorary guest, participated in the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States, which took place in Samarkand. It was planned that Turkmenistan would become a member of the OTS, but Ashgabat wished to remain in the same status for now - as an observer.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 19, 2024