The growth rate of Turkmenistan's GDP in 2023 amounted to less than a third of the officially declared figure, according to experts from the IMF who visited Turkmenistan from March 27 to April 9 and conducted an audit, Hronika.tm reports.
Economists noted a significant slowdown in the development of Turkmenistan's economy. In the post-pandemic year of 2022, the country's GDP growth sharply increased to 5.3% (due to the fact that in the previous year the economy contracted by 0.3%), however, by 2023 it dropped to 2%. It is expected that in 2024 and 2025, the indicator will reach 2.3%.
In February, the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, summarizing Turkmenistan's development over the past 15 years, stated that the GDP growth in 2023 was 6.3%, which is 3.15 times higher than the IMF estimate.
The IMF estimated the GDP volume in 2023 at 263.87 billion manats, with an expected increase to 286.634 billion in 2024.
At the official exchange rate, 1 dollar is worth 3.5 Turkmenistan manats.
It is known that the IMF no longer relies on the official statistics provided by the government of Turkmenistan due to their unreliability, and has developed an alternative system for assessing the economy.
After some decrease in 2022, inflation began to rise again in the second half of 2023. Further inflation growth up to 8% is expected. The reason cited is the annual increase in salaries and pensions by 10%.
The IMF report also notes the overvaluation of the manat and the pressure on the economy from the dual exchange rate policy.
The government of Turkmenistan should provide targeted financial support to citizens in need and optimize the management of state-owned companies as soon as possible, making them more transparent for public oversight.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
April 17, 2024