The volume of money transfers to Uzbekistan by the end of 2024 is expected to increase by 25–30% and reach $14.5–$15 billion, according to projections by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. This was mentioned in the bank's published conceptual draft of the monetary policy of the country's financial regulator for the period from 2025 to 2027, as reported by Ritmeurasia.ru.
Under an optimistic scenario, it is anticipated that the volume of transfers from other countries will grow annually by 10–15% between 2025 and 2027, reaching $20 billion. At the same time, the impact of the ruble’s exchange rate dynamics and the Russian economy on the volume of transferred funds will decrease, provided there are no economic shocks.
An alternative scenario suggests that increased anti-Russian sanctions could lead to a depreciation of the ruble. As a result, there could be a decline in the volume of transfers to Uzbekistan and a rise in inflation.
The bank forecasts that in this case, the volume of transferred funds could decrease by 7–10% in 2025, with a slower recovery marked by growth of 7–11% in 2026–2027. This would lead to a slight reduction in household income and a decrease in overall consumer demand.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
November 14, 2024