"We understand that completing the construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant is a priority for the government of Tajikistan," said Ko Sakamoto, the new Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). He made this statement in response to Tajikistan’s request for $500 million to continue the construction of the plant.
Following ADB’s decision to allocate this amount to Tajikistan, the Kun.uz portal in Uzbekistan published an article featuring expert Sobir Kodirov, who highlighted controversial aspects of the Rogun HPP project. The Eurasiatoday.ru publication summarized the key points of the article, emphasizing two major concerns.
The first concern relates to water shortages:
"Filling the reservoir will take 6–8 years, during which Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan will receive less water. The useful volume of the reservoir—3 billion cubic meters—will be permanently lost, potentially affecting agriculture and water supply in the region."
The second concern questions the viability of selling the generated electricity.
"Let’s assume the HPP starts operating and produces 3,600 MWh per year. Who will buy this electricity? Uzbekistan already exports electricity, Kyrgyzstan is developing its own hydropower capacity, Kazakhstan is building a nuclear power plant, and Turkmenistan is fully self-sufficient in energy resources. The only potential buyer is Afghanistan, but its economic instability makes it an unreliable partner. There are no clients," said Dr. Kodirov, a PhD in technical sciences.
He also speculated that the hydropower plant could be used for cryptocurrency mining.
As previously reported by Kommersant, the Rogun HPP is built on the Vakhsh River, which flows from Tajikistan into Uzbekistan - a country already facing water shortages for irrigation. During the rule of Islam Karimov (1991–2016), Tashkent strongly opposed the HPP’s construction, considering it a threat to its economy.
However, after Karimov’s death and the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President of Uzbekistan, Tashkent initially stopped criticizing the project and later approved it. Uzbekistan quickly began to benefit from this decision - for example, Tajikistan purchased trucks produced at the Samarkand plant for HPP construction.
In June 2022, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan signed a memorandum on importing electricity from the Rogun HPP. In February 2025, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan announced their intention to sign a new intergovernmental energy agreement, which includes electricity supplies from Rogun to Kazakhstan.
In August 2024, analysts at Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings estimated that completing the Rogun HPP project by 2035 would cost $6.4 billion.
It was also noted that external financing would become available once the Tajik government finalizes electricity supply agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2024–2025.
According to media reports, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are currently preparing for a trilateral presidential summit scheduled for March 31 in Khujand—the first-ever summit in this format.
Notably, today, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet Chairman, Adylbek Kasymaliyev, visited the Rogun HPP as part of his trip to Tajikistan.
Special attention was given to studying Tajikistan’s experience in hydropower construction in the context of Kyrgyzstan’s own plans to build the Kambarata HPP-1.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 5, 2025