From January to November 2024, Uzbekistan imported natural gas worth a record $1.55 billion, which is 2.8 times higher than the same period last year ($562.7 million), according to data from the Statistics Agency under the President of Uzbekistan. At the same time, the country continues to export gas, with exports reaching almost $600 million over 11 months, reports Daryo.uz.
Gas imports in January amounted to $35.6 million but then sharply increased: $131.1 million in February, $193.5 million in March, and peaking at $180.4 million in May. In subsequent months, imports fluctuated, reaching $186.8 million in November - 187 times higher than in November 2023 ($1 mln).
Despite the significant rise in imports, Uzbekistan continues its export of natural gas. Gas exports for the first 11 months of the year amounted to $540.4 million, a 17.9% increase compared to the same period last year ($458.2 million). The main export destinations are China and Tajikistan, with no recorded gas exports to Kyrgyzstan this year.
Chinese customs data confirms substantial deliveries of Uzbek gas to China. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, imports of Uzbek gas since the beginning of the year totaled $667.4 million, 27.1% more than the $470.3 million recorded over the same period in 2023. In November alone, China's imports of Uzbek gas reached $79.4 million, nearly 1.5 times higher than in November 2023 ($54.6 million). However, physical volumes are not disclosed.
Uzbek gas exports also fluctuated monthly: $21 million in January, $5.7 million in February, and peaking at $181.5 million in June. Exports in November totaled $53 million, a 3.5% increase compared to November 2023 ($51.2 million).
In January 2020, Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov announced plans to cease natural gas exports by 2025 to focus on processing and producing higher-value products. Later, in 2022, the former head of Uztransgaz, Behzot Narmatov, also spoke of the possibility of halting exports entirely by 2025–2026, with about 10% of gas output then being sent to China. However, experts note that the current import-export dynamics contradict these statements. Financial analyst Otabek Bakirov believes the export volumes could instead be used to support gas stations, greenhouses, and the Uzbekistan GTL plant, which produces propane and diesel but is not operating at full capacity.
From January to November of this year, gas production in Uzbekistan fell by 4.7%, amounting to 40.76 billion cubic meters—nearly 2 billion cubic meters less than last year. Compared to 2019 (54.3 billion cubic meters), the decline is 13.5 billion cubic meters, exceeding the annual gas consumption of the population in 2022.
Since October 2023, Uzbekistan has been importing gas from Russia through Kazakhstan in a reverse-flow arrangement. Plans to modernize the gas transportation system to increase imports from Russia are expected to cost $500 million. This project is positioned as crucial for energy security, covering seasonal consumption peaks, and diversifying supply sources.
According to the "Uzbekistan-2030" strategy, gas production is planned to increase to 62 billion cubic meters by 2030. However, recent declines in output and forecasts from Uzbekneftegaz suggest that this target may be unrealistic. Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov has stated that if exploration in the Ustyurt region does not yield expected results, gas imports could reach 10–11 billion cubic meters by 2030.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
December 23, 2024