The Uzbekneftegaz company has revised its annual natural gas production forecast for 2026 downwards to 22.8 billion cubic meters, which is 9.5% less than last year’s figures (25.2 billion cubic meters), Podrobno.uz reported.
In the first nine months of this year, the company’s structures recorded production at 17 billion cubic meters. The initial target for 2026 was 25.4 billion cubic meters.
To compensate for the depletion of traditional reserves, Uzbekneftegaz has increased the volume of 3D seismic exploration fivefold and has already discovered 5 new fields since the beginning of the year, having drilled 80 wells. Despite the drop in physical production volumes, the financial performance of the holding remains positive: revenue for 9 months increased by 22%, and net profit increased by 150%.
The decline in Uzbekneftegaz's targets reflects the deep systemic challenge facing the energy sector of Uzbekistan. The depletion of key fields is forcing Tashkent to move from the model of a monopoly exporter to the role of a large net importer of natural gas to meet the needs of a growing industry and population.
For the regional balance of Central Asia, this trend has a double effect:
Growth in imports and regional supplies: Uzbekistan is forced to increase import purchases of fuel (including from the Russian Federation and Turkmenistan), which changes flows in the regional gas pipeline system.
Pressure on neighboring countries: The reduction in Uzbek export potential stimulates neighbors - Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan - to speed up their own energy efficiency and alternative generation programs (including the development of hydroelectric power stations and projects for the import of fuel and lubricants).
Increasing investment in geological exploration of deep layers (Ustyurt) and new fields is a necessary pragmatic step by Tashkent to stabilize the energy balance, however, in the short term, the republic’s dependence on external gas supplies will only increase.
CentralAsianLIGHT.org
October 7, 2026