By the end of 2024, the size of Uzbekistan’s unobserved economy exceeded 505 trillion soums, according to information from the Agency of Statistics under the President of Uzbekistan, reported by Gazeta.uz.
The unobserved economy refers to the portion of economic activity that official statistics cannot fully account for. It includes both the informal and shadow economies.
- The informal economy consists of small businesses and services that operate without official registration. Examples include home-based clothing repairs, unlicensed taxi services, or street vending without official permits.
- The shadow economy includes legal but concealed activities. For instance, when entrepreneurs underreport their income to reduce taxes or when employees receive part of their salaries in cash to avoid taxation.
In 2024, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 6.5%, reaching 1.45 quadrillion soums (nearly $115 billion).
The gross value added of the unobserved economy was estimated at 505.65 trillion soums (about $40 billion), making up 34.8% of GDP. This means that more than one-third of the country’s economy remains outside official statistics—not only due to deliberate concealment but also because of informal employment.
- The informal economy accounted for 383.64 trillion soums (26.4% of GDP).
- The shadow economy amounted to 122 trillion soums (8.4%).
Among the sectors leading the unobserved economy:
- Agriculture, forestry, and fishing accounted for 63.6%.
- Construction followed with 41.3%, while services contributed 40.1%.
- Industry represented 8.9% of the total.
Previously, Uzbekistan conducted a study under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to assess the scale of the unobserved economy. According to the findings, Uzbekistan’s GDP in 2023 was 1.192 quadrillion soums ($101.6 billion). Before the GDP revision, the Agency of Statistics had estimated it at 1.066 quadrillion soums. Accounting for the unobserved economy increased the nominal GDP by 11.8%, adding 125.6 trillion soums ($10.7 billion).
In December, Mubin Mirzaev, First Deputy Chairman of the Tax Committee of Uzbekistan, announced plans to halve the shadow economy within five years and generate an additional 20 trillion soums in budget revenue by 2025. Measures will include stricter control over fraudulent businesses, price manipulation, and tax evasion schemes.
In September 2023, experts estimated the shadow economy at $32 billion (about 40% of GDP). Key sectors included the secondary housing and automobile markets, agriculture, informal trade, and services.
CentralAsianLIGHT.org
February 10, 2025