The World Bank has improved its forecast for Uzbekistan in its latest report on the prospects of the world economy. The Fund believes that Uzbekistan's GDP will grow by 5.5%, not by 5.3% as expected earlier this year. At the same time, inflation in the country is expected to decrease by 1.2%, and unemployment will decrease by 0.5%.
However, optimistic forecasts do not necessarily indicate that Tashkent has chosen the correct economic strategy, according to Bahodir Ergashev, the director of the Ma'no Center for Research Initiatives, the portal Ia-centr.ru reports.
The expert notes that Uzbekistan's economic policy is based on attracting as many loans as possible. These loans are allocated to various projects, and the feasibility of some of them raises doubts.
Currently, Uzbekistan is increasing its external debt and expanding the budget deficit. Such a model of economic policy is based on outdated principles of liberal monetarism, which developed economies are moving away from. Relying on liberal monetarism is unable to support local producers or ensure the country's financial sovereignty.
As a result, Uzbekistan remains dependent on international financial organizations and their loans. This jeopardizes the country's ability to pursue an independent foreign policy, as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other Bretton Woods system structures are controlled by Western states.
The weaknesses of the Uzbek economy are also evident in its relations with neighboring partners. For example, Uzbekistan's exports account for just over $3 billion of the Russian-Uzbek trade turnover, which reaches $10 billion. A similar situation has developed in cooperation with China.
To overcome the weaknesses that threaten both financial and political sovereignty, Tashkent should reduce external debt and budget deficits, as well as gradually de-dollarize the economy, according to the expert. The latter is possible by conducting trade settlements in the national currency of Uzbekistan, the sum.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
October 17, 2023