ADB economists expect Tajikistan's economic growth to reach 7.4% by the end of 2025, slowing to 6.8% in 2026. These same figures were presented in the April Asian Development Outlook (ADO), Avesta.tj reports.
According to official data, Tajikistan's economic growth in 2024 was 8.4%. ADB forecasts for Tajikistan's economy remain among the highest in the Central Asia and Caucasus region.
High growth rates are also expected in Kyrgyzstan: 8.3% in 2025 and 8.4% in 2026.
The ADO states that Tajikistan's economic growth in the first half of 2025 was 8.1%, close to the same period in 2024 (8.2%).
Mining, trade, and services remain the main growth drivers.
Industrial production expanded by 24.0% year-on-year, with metal ore production up 110.0% and food production up 8.0%. However, clothing production declined by 3.5%, while petroleum product production fell by 1.7%.
The services sector expanded by 12.8%, driven by growth of 80.2% in financial intermediation, 21.1% in the hotel industry, 16.5% in healthcare services, and 13.3% in transportation.
Despite unfavorable weather conditions for the harvest and a locust infestation in the south, agricultural growth recovered to 15.9%, while construction output increased by 7.1%.
The authors of the Review note that a sharp increase in remittances and higher public sector wages continued to stimulate private consumption.
"Despite tightening regulations on foreign labor in Russia, remittance inflows increased sharply from $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024 to $1.8 billion in the same period of 2025," ADB analysts emphasize.
They believe that the delayed effect of last year's public sector wage increases, as well as increases in wages, stipends, and pensions effective September 1, 2025, stimulated consumption and contributed to the growth of lending and deposits.
The average wage in the country increased by 24.2% year-on-year, reaching $268 per month.
"While risks affect the medium-term outlook, the sharp rise in remittances and the strong growth rates in the first six months of this year justify maintaining earlier growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026," ADB economists conclude.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
October 2, 2025