It is suggested that the supply of electricity to Central Asia be left to private business. With such an initiative at the international congress “Hydropower. Central Asia and the Caspian Sea” in Astana, General Director of the Green Finance Center Aidar Kazybaev spoke. In his opinion, entrepreneurs will be able to agree on a mutually beneficial and fair distribution of water and energy resources faster than officials.
Construction of a hydroelectric power station, cooperation with neighbors: how does Kazakhstan intend to get out of the energy crisis? This is stated in the material Ia-centr.ru.
The problem of lack of water resources in the Central Asian region is one of the most urgent at the moment and concerns primarily the southern part of Kazakhstan, where the Amudarya and Syrdarya river basins are located. About 80% of the total population of the region lives in this part of Central Asia, according to international experts, by 2050 the volume of runoff in the Amudarya river basin will decrease by 10-15%, in the Syrdarya basin - by 6-10%, which will lead to a shortage of water for agriculture. At the same time, in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, these water arteries are used for energy purposes, as "fuel" for hydroelectric power plants, which is contrary to their irrigation use in Kazakhstan.
The problem is getting worse: in 2021 in Kazakhstan, with an annual limit of 28.6 cubic meters. km water intake amounted to 24.6 cubic meters. km, and in the Aral-Syrdarya basin, where 60% of the irrigated areas of the republic are concentrated, a tense situation has already developed.
The Ministry of Ecology of Kazakhstan predicts here by 2050 a shortage of water resources of 23.2 cubic meters. km, which is comparable to the current annual withdrawal.
The countries of Central Asia have been trying to solve the problem of rational use of the waters of transboundary rivers for 30 years, but the commissions that work on this issue are solving current problems at the bilateral level. There is still no common mechanism for solving water and energy problems in the region.
In the fall of 2021, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, announced the need to create an International Water Energy Consortium that will help balance the interests of the states of the region in the field of hydropower, irrigation and environmental protection. Almost two years have passed, the initiative has remained unrealized. It didn’t work out with the officials, now instead of them it is proposed to involve businessmen from the countries of Central Asia.
Is it easier for business to find a common language than for officials?
In June 2023, the head of the Green Finance Center of the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC), Aidar Kazybaev, spoke about the future water energy hub in Central Asia.
According to him, five countries need to create:
- Central Asian Water Energy Consortium,
- regional center for improving the efficiency of energy systems and water use systems,
- digital transformation center,
- Central Asian Water Power Headquarters,
- project office to develop an optimal model for the use of water and energy resources.
A common database of potential investment projects and investors will also be needed to facilitate the implementation of cross-country projects.
“There is a good opportunity to create all these structures on the basis of the AIFC site,” he says. – Why haven't the countries of the region arrived at a unified model for managing water and energy resources in 30 years...? There are no break-even interaction models in this question. The parties cannot agree on the economics of the issue in the long run. And therefore, at present, the solution of issues has more political overtones than economic ones.
We need to move the negotiations from the political to the financial and economic plane, introduce the water balance of the region, and not of each country separately, and this requires a regular exchange of data on water and energy resources […]. We want to start with the creation of a joint venture between existing economic entities, that is, move away from the interaction of government and state bodies and establish work at the business level.”
According to Kazybaev, it is not necessary to launch such a project with the participation of all countries of the region: it is enough to arrange work at the level of two neighboring states - and the rest, seeing the benefits, will join themselves.
HPP - saving Kazakhstan from energy shortage?
Talk about trading not only water, but also energy “surpluses” looks overly optimistic, given the fact that in Kazakhstan this year the electricity deficit could be 1.1 GW, and in 2029 - already 3 GW.
One of the ways to partially solve this problem can be the construction of small hydropower plants. According to Alma Zhukenova, Deputy Director of the Department of Renewable Energy Sources of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, the potential of future HPPs will cover about 50% of electricity consumption in the republic, which in 2022 in Kazakhstan amounted to 112.8 billion kWh.
“Kazakhstan's total energy potential for hydropower is 170 billion kWh, while its technically justified potential is 62 billion kWh,” Zhukenova said. “There are three regions rich in hydropower resources in Kazakhstan: the Irtysh river basin with large hydroelectric power plants, the Bukhtarma, Shulbinsk, Ust-Kamenogorsk hydroelectric power stations, the Ili, Kapshagai, Moinak river basins, the Syrdarya, Talas and Chu river basins,” the official said.
As Zhukenova noted, 90% of all rivers in Kazakhstan are small, their length is less than 100 km. It is profitable to build small hydropower plants in the country.
The country's authorities intend to stimulate the construction with the help of the tariff policy.
In the second half of 2023, the “Settlement and Financial Center for RES”, which sets tariffs for hydroelectric power plants as well, wants to hold auctions for new renewable energy projects, focusing specifically on hydroelectric power plants, the ceiling prices for which are planned to be set at 41 tenge per kWh, or 8.8 cents.
Considering that the starting cost of a kilowatt-hour for other renewable energy sources is much lower (for wind stations - 22.68 tenge per kWh, for solar - 34.61 per kWh at a cost of 12.5 tenge per kWh from traditional sources of generation), we can conclude that Kazakhstan really wants to develop hydropower.
Not only private, but also state structures will build hydroelectric power plants in Kazakhstan - Yerzhan Dyusenov, director of the market development and sales department of Samruk-Energy, said that the state company plans to build the Semipalatinsk hydroelectric power station with a capacity of up to 300 MW on the Irtysh River.
In the near future, a preliminary feasibility study should be prepared for this project. It is assumed that the Semipalatinsk HPP will act as a counter-regulator of the existing Shulbinskaya HPP with a capacity of 702 MW in East Kazakhstan. The construction of the Semipalatinsk hydroelectric power station will take at least 5-6 years.
By 2030, Samruk-Energy plans to modernize the Kapshagay HPP on the Ili River in the Almaty region with the construction of a counter-regulator - the Kerbulak HPP, which will increase the capacity of the hydroelectric power plant.
In addition, it is planned to modernize the cascade of small HPPs of the Almaty Electric Stations company, which is part of Samruk-Energo, with an increase in their installed capacity to 7.5 MW.
While the state-owned company is preparing to implement projects, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan hopes for private business to enter small hydropower. They can deploy their stations much faster than 2030.
Source: Ia-centr.ru
CentralasianLIGHT.org
June 29, 2023