The Consumer Confidence Index in Tajikistan decreased in August 2024 after reaching a regional record in July, according to the monthly macroeconomic study by Freedom Finance Global (FFG), reports Asiaplus.tj.
The authors of the study note a decline in all sub-indices in Tajikistan, emphasizing that the most significant drop was in the assessment of the favorability of current conditions for major purchases.
"After the Index remained at roughly the same levels for four consecutive months and grew in July, it corrected downward in August. There was a partial reverse decline in the assessment of favorable conditions for major purchases, which, however, remained higher than the June values. Nevertheless, the drop in the Index and the aforementioned sub-index was not significant enough to fall below the June level," FFG analysts highlighted.
Despite this, Tajikistanis remain regional leaders in terms of consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, in Uzbekistan, the Index has been rising for the second consecutive month, partially recovering and surpassing the April level.
"The growth was again driven by improved conditions for major purchases, reaching a new record for the entire period of the study. However, compared to August 2023, the Index grew only slightly, by 1.3 points," the study notes.
In Kazakhstan, the Index decreased after four months of continuous decline.
"The decline occurred across all sub-indices, but the most significant drop in sentiment was in the forecasts for changes in personal financial well-being," the report highlights.
In Kyrgyzstan, consumer confidence has been growing for six consecutive months. This is primarily attributed to improved assessments of changes in personal financial well-being and the economic situation.
Inflation Assessments
FFG analysts noted a significant increase in inflation assessments among Tajikistanis in August after record-low levels over the previous few months. A record number of people noticed a rise in meat prices.
The share of respondents who observed a sharp increase in prices over the past month rose sharply from 18.1% to 27.4%, a ten-month high. The proportion of those who felt faster price increases over the last 12 months grew from 23.5% to 29.7%.
Inflation expectations in Tajikistan showed less growth: 9.7% of the population expects a very sharp rise in prices in the coming month, compared to 7.2% in July. However, the share of pessimists expecting price increases over the next 12 months fell from 10.5% to 10.2%.
A situation similar to Tajikistan was noted by the authors of the study in Uzbekistan, as inflation assessments and expectations reached multi-month highs. However, unlike in Tajikistan, official statistics in Uzbekistan did not record a significant rise in meat prices. This is despite almost 58% of Uzbek residents noticing a sharp increase in the price of meat and poultry, which is also a record for the past year.
In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, FFG analysts describe the situation as relatively neutral.
"In Kazakhstan, inflation assessments fell slightly but reached new record lows, while inflation expectations remained unchanged. However, slightly more people also noticed an increase in the price of meat and many other goods. In Kyrgyzstan, inflation expectations grew slightly from very low levels, but inflation assessments ultimately remained unchanged," the study emphasized.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
September 13, 2024