The International Monetary Fund forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 4.6% by the end of 2026, following its mission to the country. The IMF notes that the economy remains resilient thanks to high oil prices, domestic demand, and investment inflows, Forbes.kz reports.
The Fund also expects the country's fiscal balance and external position to improve, with international reserves covering approximately 10 months of imports. Fiscal discipline and improved government spending efficiency are cited as key conditions for curbing inflation.
The IMF highlights rising domestic demand, rising import costs, global uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and potential disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium as key risks. At the same time, continued high oil prices and tariff reforms could strengthen financial stability and reduce inflation expectations.
According to the IMF, inflation in Kazakhstan fell from 12.9% in September 2025 to 10.4% in May 2026, but remains significantly above the 5% target. The IMF believes it is necessary to maintain tight monetary policy until inflation declines sustainably, projected to be around 10% by the end of the year.
The IMF supports the National Bank's measures to remove excess liquidity and emphasizes the importance of limiting quasi-fiscal operations. It also notes the need for structural reforms, including reducing the role of the state in the economy, expanding private investment, and modernizing infrastructure and capital markets.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
June 16, 2026