Inflation in Kazakhstan in March was 11.0% year-on-year, down from 11.7% in February and ahead of international analysts' expectations: JP Morgan forecast 11.5%, while the Bloomberg consensus was 11.6%, according to Zakon.kz.
Food products (41% of the consumer basket) contributed most to the slowdown, while service price growth slowed from 0.9% to 0.6% month-on-month. Non-food products remain more inert, but the overall easing of price pressure is already systemic.
Kazakh economist Eldar Shamsutdinov notes that the decline in inflation is not related to a weakening economy, but rather reflects the delayed effect of monetary policy tightening. The strengthening of the tenge amid rising oil prices is further curbing imported inflation.
JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs anticipate further acceleration of disinflation: their baseline scenario assumes headline inflation will reach approximately 10.2% y/y by the end of the year. National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov confirmed that the coordinated policy of the regulator and the government will continue until the target is reached.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
April 2, 2026