Kazakhstan has significantly strengthened its position in the European durum wheat market, increasing its export share from 10.2% to 13.8% and taking third place among suppliers. However, experts question whether this growth is a sustainable trend or a situational phenomenon, writes Zakon.kz.
The European durum wheat market remains highly concentrated. Canada is the undisputed leader, controlling 62% of the market (771,400 tonnes). The United States ranks second with 15% (186,200 tonnes), while Kazakhstan confidently holds third place. It is noteworthy that from 2019 to 2024, Kazakhstan's share was only 3% (approximately 33,000 tonnes), and the market was more fragmented.
The increase in export shipments is directly related to the record harvest. In 2025, Kazakhstan harvested 27.1 million tons of grain with a yield of 17 centners per hectare, of which 20.3 million tons was wheat. The resulting surplus necessitated active exports. By the end of the 2024–2025 marketing year, grain exports reached 13.4 million tons, a 47% increase over the previous period and the highest level in 20 years.
The structure of the European market has also undergone dramatic changes. Previously, 37% of supplies came from small players, but now this share has fallen to 3%. The market has consolidated around a few large suppliers. Turkey's progress is particularly impressive, increasing its share from 2% to 25%. The United States, by contrast, decreased its exports by 42%.
It is important to note that Kazakhstan is increasing its presence not by displacing competitors, but by expanding its overall supply volumes. However, the European market is not a priority. The bulk of the volumes traditionally go to Central Asian countries: shipments to Uzbekistan increased by 46%, to Kyrgyzstan by 1.8 times, and to Afghanistan by 1.9 times.
New routes are also emerging. In the spring of 2025, the first shipment was sent to Morocco via the Latvian port of Liepaja. Today, Kazakhstani agricultural products are supplied to more than 72 countries worldwide, and agricultural exports have increased 1.8-fold over the past five years, from $3.8 billion to $7 billion.
Thus, the increase in the EU market share is part of the systematic expansion of Kazakhstani grain into global markets, not a fluke.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 27, 2026