Growth in Kazakhstan’s domestic trade continues to decelerate. In January–November 2025, the sector expanded by 8.8% year on year, down from previous months and in line with analysts’ expectations of slowing business activity toward the end of the year, according to a Halyk Finance review cited by Kursiv.kz.
Trade remains a key sector of the economy, accounting for 16.7% of GDP, but growth is increasingly driven by wholesale trade. This segment is supported by oil production, supplies to the domestic market, and strong demand for industrial goods amid budget spending. Analysts warn that such a structure increases vulnerability due to reliance on the commodity sector and fiscal stimulus.
Data from the Bureau of National Statistics show that wholesale trade, which makes up 66.8% of total sector turnover, grew by 9.4% in January–November, down from 9.7% a month earlier. The main contribution came from industrial goods, whose turnover rose by 12.2%, while wholesale food trade increased by just 4%.
Retail trade, accounting for 32.7% of the sector, also slowed. Over 11 months, retail growth reached 7.3% year on year. Food sales accelerated to 7.9%, while non-food retail growth eased to 7%.
Halyk Finance links the weakening of retail activity to cooling consumer demand amid declining real incomes and slower credit growth. Real wages fell by 0.4% year on year in the first nine months of 2025, prompting households to shift spending toward essential goods.
Analysts expect trade growth to continue slowing through the end of 2025 due to base effects, reduced fiscal support, and weak income dynamics.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
December 17, 2025