Kazakhstan’s National Bank has updated its macroeconomic forecast, according to which inflation in the country is expected to slow to 5.5% by 2027. For 2025, the regulator projects inflation at 12–13%, and for 2026 — within an expanded range of 9.5–12.5%, Kazinform reports.
The revision is driven by higher inflation expectations and actual indicators that exceed previous projections. Additional uncertainty is created by the upcoming tax reform and its potential impact on domestic demand.
According to National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov, demand remains resilient despite declining real household incomes. The growth in retail turnover may be linked to expectations of a VAT increase in 2026, prompting consumers to buy goods in advance.
The regulator notes that around 80% of goods and services in the consumer basket are becoming more expensive at a pace exceeding the 5% target. Despite inflation slowing to 0.5% in October, annual core inflation remains high at 12.2%.
Inflationary pressures will also be influenced by the liberalization of the fuel market and stronger domestic demand driven by quasi-fiscal stimulus. Earlier, the regulator stated that it does not plan to reduce the base rate at least until the end of the first half of 2026.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
November 28, 2025