A special place in the structure of the EAEU is occupied by Central Asia, a region located in the center of the strategic triangle Russia-India-China (RIC). Modern geopolitical and geo-economic processes actualize the integration tasks for the region, the driver of which can be the Eurasian Union. Actual problems of pairing the countries of the Central Asian (CA) region were analyzed by experts from the Astrakhan State University named after V. N. Tatishchev in an article for the scientific journal "Modern Science and Innovations". Material published on the website: Ia-centr.ru
CA region Economy: Growth or Stagnation?
Central Asia is at the crossroads of Russia, China, South Asia, the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Having geostrategic importance for transcontinental trade, global transport and energy infrastructure, the Central Asian Region attracts the interest of international actors. According to the BCG consulting company, the potential of Central Asia to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) is estimated at $170 billion, of which about $40-70 billion can be invested in non-primary sectors in the next 10 years.
The growth rate of the region's GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) for 2000–2020 increased 4.5 times, reaching $919.6 billion. However, per capita GDP in terms of PPP is distributed extremely unevenly: in Kazakhstan ($26.5 thousand) and in Turkmenistan ($16.5 thousand) it is the highest in the region. The figures for Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are much lower, while Tajikistan has the lowest level ($3,675). Despite the significant resource and production potential, the last three CA countries demonstrate a low level of economic development.
With a significant increase in GDP, the volume of foreign trade of the CAR countries, except for Uzbekistan, showed a tendency to stagnation in 2014-2020. The share of the Central Asian states in Russia's foreign trade during this period did not exceed 5.0%, while the segment of Russian exports in the structure of trade between Russia and the CA is constantly growing - in 2020 it amounted to 75.9% against 71.3% in 2014 .
In fact, Russia acts as an economic donor for the CA countries. In addition, the Russian Federation remains an important source of income for the CIS countries in terms of labor migration, including within the EAEU. According to some estimates, by 2030 the number of migrants from the CIS countries in Russia will exceed 7 million people (this is almost 9.7% of the total population of the CIS), 37.5% of them will be citizens of Uzbekistan, 16.1% from Kazakhstan, 8.6% - from Tajikistan.
How to help Central Asian integration?
The interests of the economies of the Central Asian countries require the intensification of integration processes. The desire for integration into the CAR manifested itself almost immediately after the collapse of the USSR. In 1994-2005, the Central Asian Economic Community (CAEC) operated in the region, whose members later became members of the EurAsEU.
At the IV Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of the CA in July 2022, an Agreement on Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st century was signed, as well as a number of other documents. According to the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the agreements reached provide for the possibility of creating new consultative and advisory bodies and interstate structures for the CAR countries. At the same time, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan declined to participate in the Agreement.
A heterogeneous space has formed in the CA with a pronounced geopolitical triangle oriented towards the EAEU - it can be viewed as an emerging regional association, one way or another connected with the Eurasian Economic Union.
Today, the members of the EAEU in Central Asia are Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan has the status of an observer country. The development of this association is in close connection with the interests of Russia and China, which has an agreement on a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union. Russia and China are striving for a regional interface to create multimodal transport systems, among which are the Chinese One Belt-One Road initiative and transport corridors of the Greater Caspian. At the same time, Russia provides a "security umbrella" in the Central Asian Region, and China acts as the main regional creditor.
To date, the CA states have not yet reached a high level of cooperation and integration, among the reasons for this are the persistence of trade barriers and low competitiveness of products.
One of the incentives for the development of cooperation in Central Asia may be the connection of the countries of the region to the global systems of economic cooperation.
Thus, in September 2022, at a meeting of the Eastern Economic Forum, the Prime Minister of the Interim Government of Myanmar, Min Aung Hlainu, proposed organizing a land route from the ASEAN region to Central Russia and a sea route through South Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Central African Republic. Both routes could be connected to the Chinese One Belt, One Road project.
Such projects also meet the interests of Russia, which is aimed at diversifying foreign economic contacts and strengthening cooperation with the EAEU and the Central Asian states. In addition, Moscow is interested in economic stability in Central Asia itself.
Source: IA-Centr.ru
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 17, 2023