Following an exceptionally active 2024, when fixed capital investment in Uzbekistan jumped by nearly 39%, the 2025 trend shows a return to moderate and sustainable growth, according to data from the National Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, Gazeta.uz reports.
In the first nine months of 2025, total fixed capital investment reached 443.6 trillion soums, up 15.2% year-on-year. While this is a more modest pace compared to last year’s surge, analysts note that under the current prudent fiscal policy, such steady dynamics reflect healthy stability.
Interestingly, by midyear the growth rate stood at only 5.5%, but activity picked up sharply in the third quarter, driven primarily by private and foreign investment.
Shifting investment structure
Funds from centralized sources — mainly the state budget and government programs — increased to 43.4 trillion soums (+11.9%), though their share in total investment slightly declined from 10.1% to 9.7%. Experts interpret this as a deliberate effort by the authorities to support infrastructure projects without increasing fiscal pressure.
The main growth engine continues to be non-centralized sources — corporate funds, bank loans, and foreign direct investment (FDI). These rose by 15.6% to 400.2 trillion soums, a sharp improvement from the 6.6% growth recorded in the first half of the year.
Sectoral performance
The manufacturing sector remains the top recipient, accounting for 27.3% of all investments. While its share slightly declined, machine building and chemical industries continue to attract strong capital inflows.
The mining sector, however, saw its share fall from 13.2% to 9.9%, likely due to the completion of several major projects and a shift toward raw material processing. The energy and gas distribution sectors retained about 14% of total investments.
Agriculture showed a remarkable upswing — its share nearly doubled to 8.8% thanks to modernization in processing and the adoption of water-saving technologies. Housing construction also expanded from 5.2% to 7.2%, indicating rising demand for urban development.
Investor confidence
Uzbekistan attracted $34.5 billion in foreign investment and loans over the first nine months, of which $24.9 billion went into fixed capital. FDI grew 1.5 times, reaching $14.4 billion, a sign of strong investor confidence in the national economy.
Government-guaranteed loans account for around 5% of total inflows but rose by 22.6%, suggesting that authorities are maintaining debt sustainability while keeping the pace of external financing steady.
A year of structural adjustment
For Uzbekistan, 2025 marks a phase of structural transformation rather than rapid expansion. The state’s share in total investment continues to decline, while private and foreign capital play a larger role. Investment priorities are shifting toward high–value-added sectors, infrastructure, and social development projects — signaling a more balanced and sustainable investment model for the years ahead.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
October 23, 2025