In its September Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Uzbekistan from 6.7% to 7.0%. The main factors driving the revision were the country's first-half growth, when GDP grew by 8.5%, driven by a 17.5% jump in investment, expansion of the services sector, and strong domestic demand, UzDaily.uz reported.
Uzbekistan is outperforming the overall slowdown in the Caucasus, Central and West Asia (down to 3.7%), and Asia-Pacific countries (down to 5.0%). This positive trend is supported by ongoing structural reforms, capital inflows, and growth in non-gold exports. Inflation is projected at 6.7% due to energy tariff liberalization.
The ADB's upgrade aligns with the cautiously optimistic consensus of leading global financial institutions. Thus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) previously revised its GDP forecast for Uzbekistan for 2026 upward to 6.8%, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) pegged it at 6.5% (the World Bank estimates the trend to be between 5.8% and 6.2%).
The resilience of the Uzbek economy is confirmed by its ability to maintain growth rates in the face of external turbulence, geopolitical risks, and climate pressures (the El Niño effect). The trust of major international institutions underscores the correctness of Tashkent's chosen path toward technological modernization and investment openness.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
September 23, 2026