Relations between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, which began 30 years ago, have been full of ups and downs.
Shortly after the Central Asian countries gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, their relations with Afghanistan stalled due to the civil war in Afghanistan.
Moreover, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan indirectly became involved in Afghanistan's internal conflicts by supporting one of the warring factions.
With the rise of the Taliban and its occupation of northern Afghanistan, Central Asian countries faced a new phenomenon.
This new phenomenon was the Taliban forming an alliance with Islamist groups of Central Asian origin.
This new situation led Central Asian countries to a new stage of interaction with Afghanistan.
Of the five countries in the region, Turkmenistan remained neutral, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan adopted a policy of observation, Uzbekistan both opposed the Taliban and sided with it, while Tajikistan was entirely against the Taliban.
After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and the formation of a new political system in that country, Central Asian countries, in addition to supporting the U.S. war against the Taliban in Afghanistan and providing bases and other assistance to the U.S., also established political and economic relations with the new Afghan government.
Although the U.S. presence in Afghanistan was a geopolitical gift for Central Asian countries, and they could have gained the most from it, the relationship between the two sides, especially in the economic sphere, did not match the potential of the situation, despite the incentives provided by the U.S. to both Afghanistan and the Central Asian countries.
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of the republican system, the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan.
Although there were negative assumptions about the Taliban's return to power, especially concerning the Central Asian region, contrary to those assumptions, the Taliban government’s relations with Central Asian countries, with the exception of Tajikistan, started well and are currently expanding.
The question arises: Why are political and economic relations between Central Asian countries and the Taliban regime expanding? This question can be answered by examining several key issues.
Geopolitical isolation of Afghanistan
Over the past two centuries, Afghanistan has consistently been viewed as one of the key geopolitical centers of the world.
In the 19th century, this country was the site of conflict between two colonial powers, Great Britain and Tsarist Russia.
In the second half of the 20th century, it became the battleground of two superpowers—the Soviet Union and the United States.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Afghanistan’s geopolitical significance sharply declined, but at the beginning of the 21st century, it once again became an important geopolitical point due to the emergence of Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda was an external factor, not a natural part of Afghanistan’s own geopolitical elements.
The Taliban declared their war an “internal Afghan” matter and distanced themselves from alliances with terrorist groups wanted by the United States.
This shift in the Taliban's goals and characteristics, along with new global competitions such as the rivalry between the U.S. and China and tensions between Russia and the West, has led to Afghanistan becoming less important due to its distance from these issues.
It cannot even be considered a key region in the Middle East’s regional geopolitics.
Looking forward, Afghanistan is unlikely to be seen as an important region in global geopolitics, as the U.S. does not intend to return to Afghanistan, and Russia no longer seeks access to southern waters.
Afghanistan is not even involved in the rivalry between India and Pakistan, and this isolation will continue depending on the Taliban’s foreign policy.
The Taliban’s different approach compared to the past
When the Taliban emerged in the mid-1990s and took over northern Afghanistan, the countries of the region were fearful and concerned.
The Taliban, by supporting Islamic militant groups of Central Asian origin and collaborating with Al-Qaeda, posed a significant threat to the region.
In response, each Central Asian country took unilateral or multilateral measures against the Taliban.
Turkmenistan strengthened its border security with Afghanistan by adopting a neutral foreign policy and establishing weak relations with the Taliban.
Uzbekistan, while firmly opposing the Taliban, adopted a policy of tolerance. By closing the "Friendship Bridge" and blocking the border with Afghanistan, Uzbekistan prevented militant groups from entering its territory.
Tajikistan, actively supporting anti-Taliban forces, became an outright enemy of the Taliban.
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan monitored the Afghan issue from afar due to their geographical distance from Afghanistan.
After 9/11 and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, Central Asian countries assisted the U.S. by providing bases and allowing the use of their airspace.
During the war with the U.S., the Taliban ceased supporting Central Asian militant groups.
As the Taliban’s approach shifted, Central Asian countries gradually reduced their opposition to the Taliban and moved toward a neutral stance on Afghanistan.
The Taliban, having laid the groundwork for peaceful coexistence with Central Asian countries during the war with the U.S., opened the door to positive engagement with the region after America’s departure and their restoration of control over Afghanistan, initiating positive relations with these countries.
Central Asian countries, with the exception of Tajikistan, took advantage of the opportunity and began political and economic engagement with the Taliban.
Moreover, the Taliban government's foreign policy, focused on economic cooperation, further encouraged Central Asian countries to expand their economic relations with Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s new policy, based on expanding economic cooperation and peaceful political coexistence, has given Central Asian countries hope for political and economic collaboration with the Taliban.
Russia and China’s coordination to foster Central Asia-Afghanistan cooperation
Additionally, the positive and coordinated stance of Russia and China is also helping Central Asian countries engage with the Taliban government in political and economic matters.
During the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, Central Asian countries cautiously sought closer ties with Afghanistan.
Central Asia's perspective on Taliban-led Afghanistan
In the post-American era, Russia and China were the first countries to start cooperating with the Taliban government. Both approach the Taliban cautiously to avoid provoking a reaction from the United States. However, Russia and China have created favorable conditions for Central Asian countries and are encouraging them to strengthen ties with the Taliban. Beijing and Moscow believe that closer relations between Afghanistan and Central Asia will strengthen the region and reduce Western influence.
The economic opportunities Afghanistan offers Central Asia are appealing to regional countries. As a result, the most important aspect is the economic relationship between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, making the latter more attractive to the region. Afghanistan has numerous economic benefits for Central Asian countries that can foster expanded economic cooperation. As a consumer country, Afghanistan is a prime destination for Central Asian exports. In this regard, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with their advanced agricultural and industrial sectors, view Afghanistan as a high-demand consumer market. Over the past three years, both countries have focused heavily on exporting to Afghanistan, with their top officials frequently visiting the country and signing numerous agreements to boost trade. The most recent was the visit of the Uzbek prime minister to Kabul, where several economic agreements were signed with the Taliban, and a large exhibition of Uzbek products was inaugurated.
Turkmenistan sees Afghanistan as a viable route for exporting oil and gas. This pathway could also deliver Turkmen gas to Pakistan and India, which have significant energy needs. The Turkmen gas pipeline project to the south, previously discussed during the Taliban's earlier rule, now presents an excellent opportunity for the realization of the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) project. Turkmen officials have regularly met with Taliban representatives to discuss reviving this project, with the latest meeting involving Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund at the opening ceremony of the project, where they jointly announced its launch.
Furthermore, Afghanistan is a crucial route for exporting energy from Central Asia to South Asia. Several projects remain incomplete, including CASA-1000, on which Central Asian countries have high hopes. Central Asian countries recognize the importance of Afghanistan in establishing southern transit routes, seeing it as a valuable opportunity to achieve their economic goals. In the past three years, this issue has become one of the top priorities for Central Asian nations and a key agenda in their relations with the Taliban government.
Several projects are in development, but the most significant one, which interests most Central Asian countries, is the Trans-Afghan Railway project. This railway will connect Uzbekistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Kazakhstan has recently expressed interest in this large-scale project, which could enable interregional connections between Central and South Asia.
The only Central Asian country left behind due to its opposition to the Taliban regime is Tajikistan. However, Tajikistan is gradually realizing that it needs to engage with the Taliban to capitalize on Afghanistan's economic potential. This is why Dushanbe has repeatedly sent the head of the Tajik National Security Committee to Kabul for negotiations and to establish relations with the Taliban.
Conclusion
Thirty years ago, when the Central Asian countries gained independence, Afghanistan was not a good neighbor for them and became a source of instability and threats, rather than fostering economic development. Even during the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, when it was believed that Central Asian countries could make progress with American assistance, the reality was different. Russia and China were not keen on these nations cooperating with a U.S.-backed government. Moreover, the war in Afghanistan prevented Central Asian countries from benefiting from the nation's resources.
With the development of new global power dynamics and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the country has once again become marginal in geopolitical events. The Taliban, having regained control of Afghanistan, contrary to expectations, have sought peaceful relations with their neighbors and pursued positive economic cooperation. Additionally, the situation in Afghanistan has positively influenced Russia's and China's views on close cooperation with the country. This favorable environment has provided the necessary historic opportunities for Central Asian countries to pursue their economic goals in Afghanistan.
Over the past three years, four countries—Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan—have established close relations and cooperation with the Taliban government to seize the opportunities presented. Tajikistan has also recently recognized the political and economic advantages Afghanistan offers under Taliban rule and is preparing to establish contacts with the Taliban.
In the end, while several factors have created an optimistic atmosphere, everything depends on the future actions of the Taliban government. The Taliban have exercised caution in their foreign policy from the start, and if they continue in this direction, they may achieve significant and profitable economic goals. The only threat to Afghanistan's future lies in the Taliban's domestic policies. Afghanistan holds considerable economic appeal for Central Asian countries, and these nations are making considerable efforts to exploit this. However, unless the Taliban establish an inclusive government and respect citizens' rights, especially women's rights, it is impossible to expect lasting stability and the realization of common economic goals.
Author: Mira Ahmad Mashal; Afghan Expert
Source: Eurasiatoday.ru
CentralasianLIGHT.org
7 октября 2024 года