ASTANA - Investment bank Goldman Sachs has upgraded its 2026 economic forecast for Kazakhstan, expecting higher GDP growth, slower inflation, and improved foreign trade indicators, Zakon.kz reports.
The key reason for the forecast revision was an increase in the expected average price of Brent crude oil from $66.3 to $90.1 per barrel. The bank attributes this to ongoing risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and a slower recovery in oil production in the Middle East.
Against the backdrop of a more favorable environment, analysts have raised their forecast for Kazakhstan's economic growth from 3.5-4.5% to 4.5-5.5%. The bank estimates that increased oil revenues will increase export earnings, foreign exchange earnings, and budget revenues.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs upgraded its inflation forecast, lowering the expected range from 9.5-11.5% to 9-11%. Analysts note that cooling domestic demand and a stronger tenge will contribute to a slowdown in price growth.
The current account forecast has also been significantly revised. While the previous forecast was for a deficit of 3.7% of GDP, the bank now projects a small surplus of 0.1% of GDP, indicating an improvement in the country's external economic position.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
July 9, 2026