Kazakhstan's production of oil and gas condensate in 2026 may fall below planned levels, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated on the sidelines of the Mazhilis (parliamentary lower house), Kazinform reports.
"According to the economic development plan, the target figure is 100.5 million tons [for 2026]. I believe that due to the events that occurred at the end of last year and the beginning of this year — I mean the attacks on the CPC and Tengiz — [production] will be in the range of 96–98 million tons," Yerlan Akkenzhenov said.
The minister clarified that this figure refers to the combined production of crude oil, gas condensate, and light hydrocarbon mixtures.
The revised forecast is linked to two key incidents affecting critical infrastructure in the oil and gas sector:
|
Date |
Facility |
Incident |
Consequences |
|---|---|---|---|
|
January 2026 |
Tengiz field |
Two fires at power generators |
Fires extinguished; no casualties; operations continued with restrictions |
|
January 13, 2026 |
CPC marine terminal |
Drone attacks on oil tankers |
Temporary suspension of shipments; enhanced security measures |
CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) is the key export route for Kazakh oil, handling approximately 80% of shipments to global markets. The Tengiz field, operated by the TCO consortium, accounts for roughly 25–30% of the country's total hydrocarbon production.
Failure to meet production targets could affect several key economic indicators:
- Export revenue: Lower oil export volumes would reduce foreign currency inflows to the state budget;
- Tax contributions: The oil and gas sector generates a significant share of republican budget revenues;
- Investment climate: Infrastructure incidents may increase perceived country risks among international partners.
The Ministry of Energy emphasized that additional measures are being implemented to protect energy facilities and minimize downtime:
- Strengthening physical security and monitoring of critical infrastructure;
- Coordination with law enforcement agencies and special services;
- Development of backup logistics schemes in case of CPC operational disruptions.
"We are working in close contact with subsoil users to restore planned production volumes as quickly as possible and ensure supply stability," a ministry source noted.
The situation in Kazakhstan reflects a wider trend: oil and gas infrastructure in regions near conflict zones is becoming increasingly vulnerable to emerging threats — from cyberattacks to the use of unmanned systems. Experts are urging companies and governments to invest in comprehensive protection of critical facilities.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 11, 2026