Mars Sariev, Political Analyst, Kyrgyzstan
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, holds strategic significance not only for China and Russia, but also for the five Central Asian countries. This will be the largest SCO summit since the organization’s expansion.
Against the backdrop of instability in Afghanistan, growing extremist threats, and increasing competition among global powers, the leaders’ meeting will help define the region’s long-term priorities.
1. Security Cooperation
The adoption of the "SCO Development Strategy for the Next 10 Years" will be a key step in strengthening coordination in counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, and joint border control. This is vital for Central Asia, as instability in Afghanistan creates a threat of returning militants and drug trafficking. An example is the coordination of security measures along the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway route, where integration of infrastructure and security mechanisms will help secure transportation hubs.
China may propose to Afghanistan a highway project from Tashkurgan (China) through the Wakhan Corridor to Mazar-i-Sharif, which would connect China to the planned trans-Afghan railway route (Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) with access to the Gwadar port.
Important elements will also include joint projects in mineral resource development: the Aymak copper deposit, as well as prospective projects in rare earth elements and precious metals.
To proactively combat Afghan terrorism, it is proposed to establish an SCO analytical center in Dushanbe, which would coordinate regional efforts, conduct threat forecasting, and develop joint measures and recommendations for counter-terrorism policies of Central Asian countries. This would enable a shift from reactive to preventive strategies in combating transnational extremism.
Central Asia is transforming from an object of foreign policy into an independent decision-making center. However, for this process to be sustainable, cooperation with Turkey must be strengthened so that the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) does not become a mechanism to counter China amid potential tensions in Xinjiang.
China should become a proactive player across the space from Turkey to Central Asia and offer OTS countries a harmonious framework for joint development.
2. Economic Stability and Green Energy
At the summit, initiatives such as the "Digital Silk Road" and "Green Energy Corridor" will play a significant role. The development of digital economy and green technologies allows for modernization of regional industry, attracting new investments and creating jobs.
The green energy concept is actively promoted by Europe. For Central Asian countries, a key challenge is avoiding one-sided dependence on the European agenda while preserving the ability to choose between Chinese, European, and domestic development models.
3. SCO Mechanism Effectiveness and Experience of Other Structures
The consensus principle in the SCO often leads to delayed decision-making. After Belarus’s accession and possible further expansion, the decision-making process may become even more inert. Under these conditions, Central Asian states are interested in forming more flexible coordination mechanisms.
One possible solution is the creation of a regional SCO committee for Central Asia, which could promptly consider local political and economic issues without having to go through the cumbersome system of agreement with all participants.
Global practice shows that such mechanisms work effectively:
- In the EU, specialized working groups make technical decisions at the regional level, which are then brought to the general format for discussion.
- In ASEAN, the principle of "flexible integration" is applied, allowing subgroups of countries to launch projects faster than the entire bloc.
In the future, SCO could use a similar approach, preserving strategic unity but allowing for operational decisions within subregions. If the model proves effective in Central Asia, it could be extended to other subregions, such as South Asia or the "China–Russia–Mongolia" space.
This would allow the organization to maintain flexibility and adaptability while remaining a comprehensive platform for cooperation.
4. Historical Narrative and International Discursive Authority
On September 3, 2025, a parade will be held in China to mark the 80th anniversary of victory in the Second World War. For Central Asian countries, this event holds special significance: they lost over 4 million people during the war. The problem is exacerbated by the policy of "historical revisionism" promoted by Western NGOs: for example, discussions in Kyrgyzstan about "rehabilitating Basmachi" or renaming commemorative dates in Europe. To counter this, regional countries may initiate:
- A transnational union for historical education (within SCO or CSTO) to jointly develop educational standards and research projects;
- The use of new media – multilingual TikTok and YouTube channels to disseminate stories of anti-fascist resistance and Central Asia’s contribution.
5. U.S. Policy and Regional Geopolitical Autonomy
The Trump administration has intensified contacts with Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. For Central Asia, this means new challenges. The U.S. may use a "resources in exchange for security" strategy, demanding restrictions on cooperation with China and Russia. Particularly vulnerable are Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, possessing significant reserves of oil, gas, and uranium.
A key priority is the diversification of export routes while preserving geopolitical autonomy. In the infrastructure sphere, competition is intensifying between the American "Middle Corridor" project and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.
The optimal strategy for Central Asian countries will be reliance on multilateral mechanisms such as C5+1 to preserve regional subjectivity.
Conclusion
The SCO summit in Tianjin is a key point for determining the future of Central Asia. The success of coordinated decisions will determine whether the region can become an independent center of power where security and economic development mutually reinforce each other.
Key conclusions:
- Security: joint measures to combat terrorist threats from Afghanistan, including the creation of an SCO analytical center in Dushanbe and control of transportation routes.
- Economy: infrastructure and energy projects, including trans-Afghan routes and resource development.
- History: protection of the memory of the region’s contribution to the Second World War and combating revisionism.
- Geopolitics: balance between China, Russia, and the U.S. to preserve autonomy.
- SCO Flexibility: creation of regional committees for accelerated decision-making, drawing on the experience of the EU and ASEAN.
- Turkey and OTS: strengthening cooperation for harmonious development of Turkic-speaking countries, preventing conflict of interests with China.
Central Asia is transforming from an object of foreign policy into a regional center of power capable of independently advancing its interests within the SCO and on the international stage.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
August 30, 2025