In Bishkek, the prospects for the development of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), outlined during the 11th summit of OTS heads of state held in Kyrgyzstan’s capital on November 6, were discussed. The Center for Expert Initiatives "Oy Ordo" published a summary of opinions from experts participating in the roundtable, which also included Marat Imankulov, Secretary of the Kyrgyz Security Council.
Independent economist and public administration expert, Associate Professor Dr. Almaz Nasyrov, assessed the prospects for economic integration within OTS. According to him, the foundation of relations within the organization lies in the economic potential of its members. However, another matter is whether there are opportunities and willingness to channel this potential into the development of the union.
Even a simplified analysis of the trade balance of OTS member countries shows that Kyrgyzstan’s position requires strengthening, the expert noted. Overall, according to 2023 data, Kyrgyzstan's trade balance with all OTS countries is negative.
“From an economic interest standpoint, Kyrgyzstan’s position should be pragmatic. Overall, if we look at Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade, only 20% accounts for exports, while about 80% is imports. At the same time, China and Russia are our main trade and economic partners—key importers for Kyrgyzstan, while exports are primarily directed to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. In 2023, Kyrgyzstan’s trade turnover with Russia reached $3 billion, with a goal to increase it to $5 billion this year. Trade turnover with China has already surpassed the $5 billion mark. Hence, sustainable economic ties with Russia and China are evident,” Nasyrov highlighted.
At the same time, Kyrgyzstan pursues a multi-vector foreign policy. However, the directions of cooperation should reflect the country’s economic development priorities and national security interests. This includes identifying priority areas for building bilateral relations within OTS.
“This organization undoubtedly complements other existing integration projects involving Kyrgyzstan. But it’s important to understand what shifts or solutions we can achieve in economic cooperation or technology attraction within OTS. For Kyrgyzstan's economy, infrastructure projects are now critical, including transport corridors, trade and logistics capacities, and access to maritime routes via the Caspian Sea. Accordingly, it is essential to determine the contributions OTS countries could make in these areas. The economic foundation of OTS is still in its formative stage, and the prospects for mutual benefits are not yet evident due to various objective circumstances,” the speaker explained.
He also noted that economics often intertwines with geopolitics. Serious statements were made at the Bishkek summit, which may influence future political integration. Hence, it is crucial to clearly define interests and priorities at the initial stage.
“Of particular note is the summit’s attempt to define the future stewardship of the region. Traditionally, there were two or three vectors—Russia, China, and the U.S. Today, we see emerging interests from other countries. From this perspective, we must also prioritize our national interests. To do so, we need to answer the question of what outcomes we aim to achieve, given the rapidly changing geopolitical trends in the modern world,” the expert emphasized.
Kaldan Ernarzova, director of the Public Relations Development Institute for Central Asian Countries, stressed that the Central Asian states are independent nations with their own national interests. Therefore, cooperation within OTS requires equitable interaction among all participants.
She noted Turkey's ambitious drive to assume the role of a regional leader in its foreign policy, often disregarding certain fundamental aspects critical to Central Asian countries. “For example, we observe the promotion of a pan-Turkic military alliance, the advancement of pan-Turkic ideological and educational frameworks combined with elements of religious radicalism,” she stated.
According to her, Ankara’s ambitions are evident in President Erdoğan’s October 2019 statement: “Until now, we said, ‘One nation, two states.’ Yesterday, I declared that now we have become one nation—five states. God willing, Turkmenistan will join us, and thus we will become one nation—six states, strengthening joint cooperation in the region.”
“Politically, the term ‘nation’ arises within a single state, and this is an indisputable axiom. Therefore, to become one nation, one must abandon their independence. Turkish media uses terms like ‘Uzbek Turks,’ ‘Kyrgyz Turks,’ and ‘Kazakh Turks,’ which are inappropriate for the peoples of Central Asia. These are state-forming nations with their own self-designations, and adding ‘Turks’ to their names raises doubts about Ankara’s parity-based and partnership-oriented approach to our region,” the expert shared.
She also questioned Turkey’s initiative to transition all five OTS countries to a common Turkic alphabet based on the Latin script.
“This alphabet was developed just 100 years ago by Atatürk, who sought closer ties with Western culture. We all see the spiritual and moral decay occurring in the West today, and we wouldn’t want such a culture for the future of our children. Ankara claims Turkey has no ethnic policy toward Turkic-speaking countries. However, Turkey’s actions suggest otherwise—it actively pursues its own interests,” Ernarzova emphasized.
She recalled that Central Asian scripts evolved from the late 19th century, with the Cyrillic alphabet being chosen for specific reasons. Scholar and orientalist Nikolai Ilminsky was impressed by the ancient language of indigenous Kyrgyz peoples (then Kazakhs and Kyrgyz), but noted the dominance of Tatar forms and expressions due to the use of the Arabic script.
“Now, over a century later, Cyrillic is used not only in post-Soviet countries but also among Turkic-speaking peoples of Russia, with whom we share close ties. Transitioning to the Latin script will divide these peoples. Over this period, hundreds of thousands of books have been published in Cyrillic. This is our cultural heritage, and if we discard it, future generations will bear the consequences. Before making such decisions, we should ask our people if they want such reforms,” she stressed.
She also pointed out that Turkey's real objectives within OTS are aimed at achieving regional leadership and competing with China and Russia, as Turkey’s ambitions are significantly constrained in other areas by major geopolitical players.
Ernarzova added that Turkey’s NATO membership contrasts with the membership of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in the CSTO. Given the incompatibility of these blocs, military-technical cooperation with Ankara could pose risks and security threats. “The arrival of numerous security officials accompanying Erdoğan to the summit, followed by their meetings with Kyrgyz security leaders, raises concerns about potentially drawing our country into Western geopolitical games, or even military conflicts, via Turkey,” she noted.
At this stage, Central Asian countries must clearly define their development prospects, as well as national and regional interests, rather than acting within frameworks imposed by “civilized” countries.
“In my view, time is no longer measured in years, but in days, so we can’t afford to waver. Real priorities must be set based on our interests, not to appease geopolitical players offering us ‘glass beads’ in the form of ephemeral or even harmful initiatives and projects. We have reliable allies within the CIS, CSTO, EAEU, and SCO, and cooperation with them should remain a focus in the near and long-term future,” Ernarzova concluded.
The roundtable was organized by the Center for Expert Initiatives "Oy Ordo."
CentralasianLIGHT.org
November 21, 2024